TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,959 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic45c570.06$257 inWon+$313.541,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons52c486.53$253 inLost-$252.512,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Pistons55c442.27$243 inLost-$243.253246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons39c407.52$159 inLost-$158.931,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Magic48c397.19$190 inWon+$207.5121950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed Pistons55c341.43$188 inLost-$187.794348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Magic58c303.66$176 inWon+$127.51,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Magic49c298.51$145 inWon+$153.1229040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Magic48c220.77$106 inWon+$114.813747.4%65 W · 72 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce3…07b5backed Magic73c202.47$148 inWon+$54.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Pistons53c179.04$95 inLost-$94.6187049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd3…bd04backed Pistons57c103.37$58 inLost-$58.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Pistons57c102.29$58 inLost-$58.3117047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Pistons49c98.04$48 inLost-$48.0476247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Magic51c95.16$49 inWon+$46.637529.3%22 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed Pistons53c50$27 inLost-$26.543752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1160…e3f7backed Magic47c41.2$19 inWon+$21.841457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+204.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Pistons26c39.4$10 inLost-$10.123741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0edb…8260backed Pistons55c35.81$20 inLost-$19.697261.1%44 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe001…62d5backed Pistons55c32.34$18 inLost-$17.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Magic46c31.55$15 inWon+$17.049748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Magic46c23.14$11 inWon+$12.499949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.