NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 194.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7131f8681ec793f3b68d90021eef7907b197548538c0c4a2dcd259a18f9a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 55c | 10,297$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.31 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 9,332$4,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,070.79 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 51c | 1,697$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.77 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 52c | 1,602$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 52c | 1,560$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.19 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 48c | 1,323$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.33 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 944.1$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.46 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 933.05$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 48c | 601.5$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 23c | 435.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.84 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…86dabacked Over | 60c | 406.65$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Under | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Under | 59c | 313.97$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 252.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 25c | 233.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…3bccbacked Over | 39c | 231.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…2137backed Under | 51c | 190.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Under | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 21c | 178.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 49c | 174.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 145.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Over | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…0af7backed Under | 50c | 120.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 57c | 114.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 105.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…f538backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 49c | 97.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Under | 51c | 94.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 73 | 16.4%12 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +1,317.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd9…3a3dbacked Under | 51c | 60.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…42c3backed Under | 34c | 60.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 49c | 59.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…e02fbacked Under | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 221 | 43.4%96 W · 125 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 40c | 52.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Under | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…789abacked Under | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +7.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Under | 48c | 39.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed Under | 48c | 39.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cb…4fe3backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…1443backed Over | 67c | 29.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…f2a9backed Over | 54c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 194.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Magic won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Magic vs. PistonsPistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 193.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 196.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 200.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-21.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-25.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.