NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e6aa1c340a9c44d062a2001508e9ecee022a60112960ef99c2a86a06778eb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Magic | 51c | 16,257$8,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,967.16 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Pistons | 49c | 4,715$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.51 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…1ab9backed Pistons | 50c | 2,374$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Pistons | 50c | 2,270$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.9 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pistons | 47c | 1,995$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.65 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…772cbacked Pistons | 49c | 1,969$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.74 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pistons | 51c | 1,802$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.94 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Pistons | 49c | 1,784$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.97 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Magic | 49c | 1,780$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.62 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…e0fdbacked Magic | 49c | 1,387$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.47 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Pistons | 49c | 839.44$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons | 49c | 718.6$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.85 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Pistons | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Magic | 50c | 460$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Magic | 51c | 385.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.12 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Magic | 50c | 349.9$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.95 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 52c | 242.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Pistons | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pistons | 49c | 197.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Magic | 52c | 197.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Pistons | 55c | 149.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Pistons | 52c | 118.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Pistons | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Pistons | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Pistons | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…590ebacked Magic | 51c | 94.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Magic | 55c | 88.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Pistons | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Pistons | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Pistons | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Magic | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Magic | 40c | 48.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fac…532dbacked Pistons | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Magic | 40c | 47.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb98…3e81backed Pistons | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Pistons | 52c | 46.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pistons | 40c | 43.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pistons | 48c | 42.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Pistons | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Magic | 39c | 36.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Magic | 51c | 32.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Pistons | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Magic | 39c | 27.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Magic | 39c | 26.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Magic won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Magic vs. PistonsPistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 193.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 194.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 196.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 200.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-21.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-25.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.