TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf596…4b79

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
135
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst NHL at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT6446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$22.72
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.11
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$60.49
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$67.62
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigersbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)backed New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.06
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$68.96
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)backed New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)backed Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.21
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$48.17
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$32.01
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+33.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$31.43
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+84.2%+$29.48
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.28
Spread: Spurs (-19.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$18.39
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.57
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$41.07
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.35
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.56
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$13.13
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+82.8%+$20.14
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+89.2%+$14.66
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+123.1%+$71.59
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$42.17
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.48
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.11
Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$149.96
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$23.64
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+95.2%+$18.48
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.28
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.18
1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$25.22
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.54
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-51.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.27
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.25
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.24
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.66
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$40.96
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.86
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)backed Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$49.82
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.94
Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.76
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.76
Avalanche vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.06
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$18.65
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.96
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.08
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+77.6%+$22.67
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.01
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$53.68
Spread: Stars (-1.5)backed Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.65
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+147.1%+$126.77
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$24.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)backed PortlandFire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baezbacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.