MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36dbad61cdcad502384615615afc25c5b8308194c7f92011c0ceb28c78a8a11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 4,140$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.75 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 61c | 3,987$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.87 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 2,618$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.71 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 1,638$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.26 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 63c | 1,536$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 63c | 1,419$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.11 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 63c | 1,063$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.54 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 877$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.11 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 837.84$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.84 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 62c | 755.72$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.55 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 66c | 432.81$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.69 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 371.57$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.57 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 62c | 367.7$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.47 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 234.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 188.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed New York Yankees | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Yankees | 27c | 135.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed New York Yankees | 73c | 132.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed New York Yankees | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 67c | 115.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed New York Yankees | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Yankees | 54c | 106.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 105.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 102.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed New York Yankees | 49c | 81.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed New York Yankees | 51c | 68.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 67.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed New York Yankees | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Yankees | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 46.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 44.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 35.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed New York Yankees | 60c | 35.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed New York Yankees | 65c | 30.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked New York Yankees | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Yankees | 63c | 27.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed New York Yankees | 65c | 26.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed New York Yankees | 60c | 25.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed New York Yankees | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Yankees | 65c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…88dfbacked New York Yankees | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed New York Yankees | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.