MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3203b62fc522331b813330c81bc94c3c1e8d2097f38d91f6fb670d8c4d501cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 36c | 6,635$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.43 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 5,376$3,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 1,000$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 933.48$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 36c | 829.78$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 793.86$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.74 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked New York Yankees | 35c | 571.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Yankees | 35c | 379$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 304.45$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked New York Yankees | 36c | 304.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 232.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 34c | 225.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 111.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 110.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 35c | 105.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…cb2bbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 105.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 105.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 76.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 30c | 54.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees | 36c | 46.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 40.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed New York Yankees | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 32.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 25.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.