MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ab466b01a88c46673bdad7bfa004e349b914fd0fa1daf6448d4761904c82bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 1,432$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 35c | 903.14$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.04 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 657$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 651.18$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Under | 45c | 647.26$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 41c | 524.38$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 471.9$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 38c | 256.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 235.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7916…cb13backed Over | 39c | 181.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 163.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Under | 61c | 163.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 27c | 162.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 139.45$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 66c | 120.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 107.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 104.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 53c | 102.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 51c | 101.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 94.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 83.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 40c | 74.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 61c | 55.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 58c | 53.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 41c | 53.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 78c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 43c | 29.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 60c | 24.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 66c | 21.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.