MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dfc36d8e0df1545803e67cf0118915b231208c72b401c6f9fd1c51001a95ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 56c | 10,137$5,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.82 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 7,674$3,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,943.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 5,718$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,194.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 5,316$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.44 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 2,069$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 63c | 1,271$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 481.89$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.15 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 299.07$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 58c | 236$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 49c | 226.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 46c | 212.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 35c | 190.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Under | 29c | 158$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 56c | 137$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 45c | 132.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 46c | 122.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 113.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 73c | 111.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 46c | 106.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 46c | 106.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 33c | 100.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…98bebacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 42c | 71.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…44fdbacked Under | 46c | 64.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 47c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 60.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 53.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 35c | 52.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 51c | 48.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Under | 44c | 45.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Under | 45c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 39.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 40c | 37.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 36c | 35.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 40c | 33.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 45c | 31.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 75c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.