MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfbfc496bf8cef966b69b3eed6d5de5d4f91729440c6f2184e29853d99c0f876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 1,911$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,741$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 48c | 1,296$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.06 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.05 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 856.11$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 50c | 800.4$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 775.86$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 628.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 57c | 550$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…76e7backed Under | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 495.31$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 479$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 70c | 428.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 393.24$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.61 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 46c | 385$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 46c | 342.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 16c | 313.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 307.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 41c | 279.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 18c | 273.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 252.64$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 40c | 231.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Over | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 123.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…e0a3backed Over | 39c | 114.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 66c | 104.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 79c | 96.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…69f9backed Under | 63c | 76.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 53c | 66.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 48c | 56.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 66c | 53.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 48c | 46.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 54c | 39.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under | 47c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 54c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 19.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.