TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Oilers vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ducksof Oilers, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,996,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,055,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,996,249 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 871 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Ducks46c405,533$186,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218,987.921822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-51.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Ducks20c395,485$78,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316,566.1716442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Oilers54c241,789$130,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,565.8512146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Oilers78c182,985$143,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,094.711,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Ducks45c85,197$38,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,126.211,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Oilers73c62,152$45,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,382.5313841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Ducks46c49,995$22,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,997.3614650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0071…2db0backed Oilers0c47,003$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Oilers54c42,495$22,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,947.241656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Oilers54c40,000$21,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,600.0312950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Oilers54c35,917$19,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,394.9583149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Oilers56c35,775$20,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,032.754252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Oilers53c32,700$17,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,330.9515949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Oilers75c29,819$22,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,336.9440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f24…05efbacked Ducks38c29,751$11,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,313.481838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Oilers54c29,048$15,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,694.328749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Oilers53c25,000$13,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,349.921,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Oilers54c24,119$13,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,024.124850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Oilers73c23,341$16,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,939.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Oilers54c21,752$11,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,745.872123.8%5 W · 16 L-6.6wins-0.31per pick55cpaid-57.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Oilers70c13,829$9,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,617.641625%4 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Ducks60c11,403$6,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,608.2111950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Ducks34c11,054$3,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,338.12839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Oilers54c11,026$5,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,907.5961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Ducks20c10,841$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,672.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Oilers80c10,080$8,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0643158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Ducks44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6004161%25 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Ducks46c9,634$4,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,202.3285250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Ducks48c9,442$4,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,910.497038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed8…4388backed Oilers78c9,176$7,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,122.581442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Oilers53c9,140$4,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,859.53754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Ducks21c8,781$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,942.4519848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Oilers72c8,725$6,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,254.8318452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Ducks49c7,805$3,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,983.062045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Ducks47c7,766$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.0932151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x630e…3a86backed Oilers74c7,485$5,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,522.293158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Oilers53c7,391$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,885.27244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Ducks48c7,182$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,707.088345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Oilers53c7,060$3,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,741.6348549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers60c6,297$3,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,807.232,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ducks39c6,265$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,829.692,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0f6…194fbacked Ducks19c6,238$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,052.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Oilers54c6,000$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,209.971,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Oilers53c5,859$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,105.1152050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Ducks40c5,610$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,350.6211251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Oilers71c5,462$3,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,863.099157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Ducks21c5,199$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.94944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Oilers61c5,000$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044.9933652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae4…9789backed Oilers54c4,989$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,694.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Ducks45c4,635$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.0567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Oilers66c4,373$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,890.9519759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Ducks49c4,304$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.112433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Ducks25c3,925$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.125644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Oilers53c3,698$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.0816656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Ducks32c3,481$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.0475251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Ducks52c3,242$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.9618853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Ducks33c3,197$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,128.692,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b8…d25fbacked Ducks20c3,076$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.321030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Oilers67c3,052$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.5612654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Oilers54c2,917$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.2958352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Ducks47c2,875$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.1527037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Ducks25c2,849$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.3410743%46 W · 61 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Oilers69c2,676$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.2789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Oilers72c2,616$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.091936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Ducks18c2,606$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.1635551%181 W · 174 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83a0…eabbbacked Oilers54c2,564$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.351154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Oilers56c2,542$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.8627044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Ducks53c2,460$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.9827445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Oilers54c2,406$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.132871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e964backed Oilers1c2,390$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed22…d661backed Ducks48c2,381$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10d…4ba0backed Oilers53c2,358$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.73966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Ducks47c2,319$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.6222250%111 W · 111 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Oilers54c2,281$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.1322946.3%106 W · 123 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Ducks40c2,266$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.343721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+210.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Oilers55c2,247$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.6620756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Oilers67c2,200$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.9126154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41dc…6bbebacked Oilers28c2,161$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.043641.7%15 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Oilers54c2,119$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.5139649.5%196 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Ducks47c2,110$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.2822151.1%113 W · 108 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Oilers79c2,096$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.793043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Ducks47c2,054$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.3830946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Ducks48c2,018$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Oilers78c2,010$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.12360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Oilers54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08026750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Oilers53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.914555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf964…a4cebacked Oilers54c1,977$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Oilers53c1,929$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.373650%18 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Oilers53c1,862$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.896448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Oilers55c1,859$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.5420450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Oilers35c1,725$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.9813747.4%65 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Ducks45c1,724$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.294139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ducks35c1,683$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.13,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Oilers67c1,681$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.7737754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Oilers68c1,661$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.469260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Oilers78c1,649$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.495954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Ducks45c1,648$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.9889249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Oilers52c1,647$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.421435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d3b…e920backed Oilers53c1,607$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.633135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Ducks21c1,588$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.268445.2%38 W · 46 L+14.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.