NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e9d78af84c99b68f3e42eba680d94022895a001d694fc7906bd457becbaec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 75c | 11,191$8,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.42 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 26c | 4,410$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.62 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 4,102$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.82 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Under | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 25c | 2,852$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.72 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 73c | 1,346$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.44 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 73c | 1,281$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.42 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 25c | 1,134$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 75c | 1,029$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.72 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 979.59$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.81 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 73c | 512.57$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 26c | 472.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 75c | 443.61$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 17c | 314.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 21c | 312.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 28c | 221.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 74c | 220.8$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 19c | 212.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 24c | 155.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc61…8a6abacked Under | 31c | 152.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 74c | 137.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 25c | 128.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 75c | 127.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 77c | 121.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 74c | 111.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 26c | 111.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 75c | 109.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Over | 73c | 101.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…4f97backed Under | 29c | 98.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Under | 34c | 87.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Under | 29c | 86.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 24c | 81.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…86c0backed Under | 30c | 80.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Under | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…6003backed Over | 73c | 79.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 23c | 74.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…0381backed Over | 69c | 74.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Under | 26c | 67.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 74c | 66.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 25c | 64.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 22c | 64.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 19c | 58.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 19c | 54.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Under | 27c | 39.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Under | 28c | 38.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…f338backed Over | 74c | 37.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Over | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Over | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Oilers vs. DucksDucks won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.