TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Burnley FCof Manchester City FC, Burnley FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$201,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,541 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Burnley FC39c67,605$26,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,021.5417557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d0a…dda0backed Manchester City FC65c36,374$23,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,497.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Burnley FC37c23,698$8,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,831.526,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Manchester City FC53c22,436$11,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,845.199746.4%45 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfc…bf06backed Manchester City FC49c14,719$7,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,212.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Manchester City FC68c9,772$6,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,613.219749.5%48 W · 49 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Burnley FC31c7,593$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,273.3613748.2%66 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Manchester City FC68c7,212$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9046066.7%40 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7002…395cbacked Manchester City FC67c6,010$4,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,027.991540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Manchester City FC66c5,978$3,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,925.152,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda6…84c5backed Burnley FC39c4,817$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.371040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+81.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Burnley FC34c3,581$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.3940655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2881…2091backed Manchester City FC70c3,088$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Burnley FC39c2,940$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,793.2974156.8%421 W · 320 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Burnley FC33c2,697$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.9755751.5%287 W · 270 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Manchester City FC65c2,545$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.7839555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd65…3e60backed Manchester City FC73c2,499$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.914050%20 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Manchester City FC68c2,452$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.369055.6%50 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC56c2,292$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.64,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Manchester City FC66c2,186$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.092040%8 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester City FC55c2,170$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.2261143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Manchester City FC67c2,131$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.592,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Burnley FC33c2,078$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.4276842.6%327 W · 441 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Burnley FC33c1,926$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.1185048.4%411 W · 439 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Manchester City FC70c1,821$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.041369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4d…0486backed Manchester City FC67c1,737$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a80…49bfbacked Manchester City FC69c1,597$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.22955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Manchester City FC68c1,443$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.793767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74a9…0dc7backed Manchester City FC63c1,436$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.725248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf067…5c6dbacked Burnley FC34c1,401$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.71428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Manchester City FC15c1,266$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3916238.3%62 W · 100 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Burnley FC39c1,235$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.431050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc661…610abacked Manchester City FC61c1,100$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6711241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Manchester City FC69c1,011$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick66cpaid-42.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Manchester City FC69c991.21$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.94862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Manchester City FC69c981.4$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.17944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Burnley FC35c979.4$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.371,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Manchester City FC66c938.69$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.854845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Burnley FC32c901.01$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.4759247.6%282 W · 310 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Manchester City FC66c871.92$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.242360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…b472backed Manchester City FC70c843.12$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea9…0924backed Burnley FC34c840.63$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Manchester City FC67c823.88$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.313855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Manchester City FC66c790.05$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.796866.2%45 W · 23 L+9.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+21.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Burnley FC33c788.64$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.3920545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda13…0560backed Manchester City FC68c763.03$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Manchester City FC67c726.43$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.252055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53f…8c53backed Manchester City FC67c658.34$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.094252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Burnley FC32c623.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.9241850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Manchester City FC67c603.03$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.224557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked Manchester City FC69c570.36$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.742748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Burnley FC34c569.93$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.889131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Manchester City FC65c568.05$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.279152.7%48 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Burnley FC33c535.45$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.313336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Manchester City FC67c529.01$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.443839.5%15 W · 23 L-8.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-39.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Burnley FC32c520.94$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.2122146.2%102 W · 119 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Manchester City FC70c519.06$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.347736.4%28 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Manchester City FC66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3309157.1%52 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99ec…0da5backed Manchester City FC70c495.57$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x902f…fb2dbacked Burnley FC33c484.74$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.822871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+40.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Manchester City FC67c475.15$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.351855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed Burnley FC37c471.01$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.072951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Manchester City FC68c451.31$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.893850%19 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Manchester City FC66c450$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2953026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8561…936ebacked Manchester City FC68c429$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef25…c969backed Manchester City FC67c428.65$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2134…0734backed Manchester City FC69c417.17$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.782147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Manchester City FC68c414.8$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.762755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Manchester City FC68c406.92$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3711636.2%42 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Burnley FC34c401.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.378259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Manchester City FC66c397.76$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5830057%171 W · 129 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec2…80c0backed Manchester City FC68c396.65$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.721450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60da…a14ebacked Manchester City FC69c392.55$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.162552%13 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed Manchester City FC68c360.59$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.27847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8b…6d27backed Manchester City FC69c357.66$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Burnley FC32c348.46$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9513846.4%64 W · 74 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x503a…1e89backed Burnley FC33c345.5$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.072147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Manchester City FC65c340.34$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2259445.5%270 W · 324 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Burnley FC29c330.14$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.49654.2%52 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Manchester City FC56c317.93$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1922644.2%100 W · 126 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed3…7e96backed Manchester City FC66c302.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aaf…09afbacked Manchester City FC67c294.88$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.57366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Manchester City FC65c294.16$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.224052.9%127 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Manchester City FC67c294.06$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0230059.7%179 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Manchester City FC67c290.53$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.12450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Manchester City FC68c288.81$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1514351%73 W · 70 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c3…d11dbacked Manchester City FC69c284.83$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.273026.7%8 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Burnley FC34c282.47$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4312652.4%66 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbdd…c26abacked Manchester City FC70c281.47$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.371838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Manchester City FC70c280.57$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.45271.2%37 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Burnley FC32c252.62$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7875850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef2a…22cabacked Manchester City FC67c252.46$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Burnley FC33c240.8$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3332345.2%146 W · 177 L-1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b3…4a85backed Manchester City FC66c230$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.89953.5%53 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Manchester City FC68c216.35$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1215553.5%83 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4363…d6e0backed Manchester City FC67c213.43$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1434854.2%26 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed Manchester City FC68c200.36$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.244360.5%26 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Manchester City FC66c199.93$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9519834.8%69 W · 129 L-17.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Burnley FC33c193.62$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6910827.8%30 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cea…ffd2backed Manchester City FC67c188.15$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.991225%3 W · 9 L-5.1wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-61.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.