TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Canadiens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Canadiens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$948,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,008,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $948,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 788 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bec…b215backed Lightning52c201,418$104,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,680.6916442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Canadiens48c125,000$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,0007545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Lightning53c99,677$52,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,819.314650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canadiens47c60,000$28,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,2001,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Lightning51c40,074$20,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,636.2515054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens49c25,523$12,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,396.7633151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e0…edc5backed Canadiens55c22,752$12,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,468.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Canadiens50c22,550$11,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,213.732236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Canadiens73c20,408$14,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,897.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick58cpaid-78%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Canadiens48c19,376$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,300.485046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens47c18,010$8,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,544.391,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Canadiens60c15,046$9,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,057.1489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf30…8b95backed Canadiens48c14,614$7,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,010.964443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens49c13,732$6,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,680.148845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Canadiens57c12,866$7,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,390.9585250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning43c12,433$5,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,111.342,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Canadiens48c12,241$5,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,875.544850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e3…fbb2backed Canadiens52c12,229$6,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,316.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24c…5809backed Canadiens43c11,209$4,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,829.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Canadiens47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70013049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Lightning61c9,598$5,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.8140356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Lightning52c9,343$4,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,487.463354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning48c9,287$4,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,796.022,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Canadiens49c8,725$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,275.054555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Lightning52c7,485$3,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,607.3628749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning54c7,318$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.821,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning46c7,240$3,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,911.2999638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning51c7,082$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning53c6,677$3,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.1875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Lightning42c6,507$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,783.8112950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Lightning45c6,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30039344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning65c5,916$3,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.5640351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc38…1e98backed Lightning53c5,755$3,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.12875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Canadiens72c5,663$4,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,077.172920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Canadiens46c5,018$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.2252050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Canadiens47c4,444$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.684139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Canadiens60c4,274$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.55756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning50c4,212$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.7383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Canadiens73c4,100$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Canadiens46c4,072$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.292045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens78c4,008$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.371,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Canadiens49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96015749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x134f…2b5dbacked Lightning36c3,950$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Canadiens50c3,940$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.26933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning51c3,882$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.3839752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Canadiens79c3,705$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.8411950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Lightning53c3,640$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.13742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Lightning53c3,480$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.0819759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Lightning53c3,478$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.0918452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Lightning53c3,472$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.19157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x630e…3a86backed Lightning52c3,399$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.543158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Canadiens48c3,239$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.97244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Canadiens47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4104949%24 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Lightning26c2,965$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.8743742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…03c2backed Lightning25c2,932$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.886750.7%34 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Canadiens47c2,931$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.4183149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Canadiens50c2,849$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.0930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Canadiens56c2,835$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.5314946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Canadiens78c2,808$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Lightning55c2,704$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.0427037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Canadiens38c2,517$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.9629533.6%99 W · 196 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Lightning53c2,457$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.797755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lightning46c2,416$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.112,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lightning51c2,400$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.976950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lightning54c2,223$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.5541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Lightning43c2,208$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.6627044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0f…3c8ebacked Canadiens21c2,150$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.472152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens60c2,059$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.11,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa56f…ee5fbacked Canadiens48c2,018$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.81877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+33.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Canadiens48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9606245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Canadiens48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96020450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Canadiens49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98038046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Lightning51c1,998$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.162343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc963…e1d7backed Canadiens48c1,969$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Canadiens29c1,838$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.448445.2%38 W · 46 L+14.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Canadiens33c1,755$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.855240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Canadiens49c1,696$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.2630946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Lightning52c1,646$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Lightning57c1,597$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.93228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lightning54c1,591$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.0513841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Canadiens43c1,585$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.5411251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41dc…6bbebacked Lightning25c1,534$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.853641.7%15 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Canadiens49c1,509$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.293423.5%8 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1443…d4dabacked Lightning52c1,491$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.813342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ad…45f9backed Lightning51c1,485$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.663735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-30%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Lightning51c1,463$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.923935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd344…6862backed Canadiens49c1,454$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.513551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5c8…76b4backed Canadiens21c1,442$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.179550.5%48 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Lightning32c1,371$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.5935829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Lightning46c1,370$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.4555446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Lightning16c1,341$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.212839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Lightning53c1,325$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.2537754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Lightning52c1,283$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.7111045.5%50 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Canadiens50c1,265$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.1816446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Canadiens47c1,236$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.925844.8%26 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44f4…a008backed Canadiens1c1,223$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning52c1,167$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.259450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Lightning36c1,134$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.4533234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Lightning53c1,115$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.147755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Lightning52c1,106$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.7133450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.