NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa73dece45d9fbfe6680c180e3cdd669ce9408bed7f97f2d6977ff5f262e7f5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Over | 46c | 1,531$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.9 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 56c | 1,001$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.55 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 42c | 919.35$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.08 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…4d78backed Under | 7c | 875$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 697.01$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 20c | 666$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 19c | 498.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 20c | 307.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…6563backed Over | 80c | 246.87$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 54c | 219.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Over | 62c | 195.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 15c | 178.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 22c | 140.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 13c | 140.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…a2d5backed Under | 46c | 116.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 78c | 99.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 97.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 79c | 95.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 81.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 37c | 77.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 57c | 59.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 35c | 58.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 34c | 40.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed Under | 53c | 39.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 66c | 37.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…959fbacked Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.