NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbd8b765fde68331294d8d3b5de0d5266f50fa292a7c5681e5986e055913ed6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Canadiens | 71c | 20,941$14,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,072.97 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lightning | 29c | 10,752$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,117.96 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Lightning | 29c | 5,484$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.24 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Canadiens | 71c | 2,689$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.43 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning | 29c | 2,506$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.78 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning | 29c | 1,915$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.29 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Lightning | 29c | 1,640$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.61 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Canadiens | 60c | 1,617$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Canadiens | 71c | 1,342$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.07 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Canadiens | 71c | 1,247$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.64 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Lightning | 33c | 1,110$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.36 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Lightning | 28c | 1,076$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.63 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Lightning | 28c | 999.78$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.94 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 29c | 831.98$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.94 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…8b95backed Lightning | 27c | 754.38$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 34c | 724.52$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Lightning | 29c | 627.26$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Canadiens | 73c | 617.49$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.72 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 69c | 491.88$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 39c | 480.92$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Canadiens | 70c | 451.47$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Lightning | 29c | 335.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Lightning | 29c | 293.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Lightning | 33c | 291.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 30c | 284.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Canadiens | 77c | 262.97$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Lightning | 14c | 260.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens | 67c | 254.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Lightning | 30c | 234.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Canadiens | 65c | 215.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Canadiens | 71c | 208.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Lightning | 40c | 202.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Canadiens | 64c | 198.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 72c | 188.48$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Canadiens | 71c | 171.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Canadiens | 75c | 154.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Canadiens | 71c | 121.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Canadiens | 70c | 117.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Canadiens | 69c | 107.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Canadiens | 71c | 99.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Lightning | 33c | 97.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 33c | 97.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…abbbbacked Canadiens | 70c | 96.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Lightning | 35c | 63.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Canadiens | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Lightning | 41c | 49.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…bfaebacked Lightning | 29c | 44.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Canadiens | 70c | 43.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Canadiens | 71c | 35.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Canadiens | 72c | 30.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Canadiens | 69c | 27.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Lightning | 40c | 25.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Canadiens | 67c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Canadiens | 70c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…8c1ebacked Canadiens | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…0bcebacked Canadiens | 68c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.