TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,162,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,692,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,162,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,801 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x640d…9a4cbacked No44c7,020,377$3,100,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100,741.791729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7225…659abacked Yes41c2,906,813$1,177,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729,388.882846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Yes53c2,318,250$1,223,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094,759.9715456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes53c2,278,503$1,204,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073,519.7974752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67a…f0b6backed No47c2,105,492$999,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999,997.992123.8%5 W · 16 L-5.6wins-0.27per pick51cpaid-52.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa4b1…5143backed No47c2,105,485$999,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999,994.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Yes54c2,042,645$1,095,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946,819.0777152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Yes57c1,683,499$952,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730,749.439142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe22a…2703backed No47c1,574,467$739,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739,999.491338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a6…9458backed No44c1,049,999$457,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457,499.344753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2dd…4a23backed No47c1,042,553$490,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489,999.911637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes50c824,089$410,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413,672.374,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ba…dababacked No43c697,674$300,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299,999.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b9…36aebacked No43c697,674$300,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299,999.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Yes53c663,225$350,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312,890.8411642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes49c567,557$279,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287,981.752,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed No47c530,000$249,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249,10022348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Yes57c400,000$228,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172,0003345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3496…8fc4backed No54c387,265$210,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210,237.1417034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c358,030$186,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,168.48,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed No47c300,000$141,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,0002729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Yes57c299,999$171,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,999.7815552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Yes48c299,974$142,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,046.4164446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes53c281,623$149,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131,687.592,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No44c223,537$97,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,317.5356541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes55c211,111$116,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,333.1842345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ba…afeabacked Yes59c204,900$120,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,084.4815337.3%57 W · 96 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Yes56c203,610$113,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,678.0317452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5848…a698backed No45c200,000$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,0001866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x580d…eb6dbacked No42c199,997$83,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,998.648063.8%51 W · 29 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x088b…21ccbacked Yes56c196,270$108,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,321.45040%20 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86d2…731dbacked No42c191,419$80,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,395.857343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Yes52c189,440$98,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,931.353441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb61b…8a06backed No41c160,976$66,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,000.025959.3%35 W · 24 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x594d…059dbacked Yes60c160,259$96,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,362.131560%9 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No41c138,850$56,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,259.8416835.1%59 W · 109 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed Yes57c131,196$74,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,383.759747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Yes54c126,375$68,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,129.439345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Yes52c124,711$64,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,861.516546.1%76 W · 89 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d06…7910backed Yes59c120,000$70,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,60014343.4%62 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Yes56c118,714$66,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,234.1617447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02af…aaa9backed Yes54c110,502$59,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,251.9113448.5%65 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a2…353abacked Yes47c103,108$48,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,727.084841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No54c102,687$55,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,430.1315844.3%70 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes53c100,000$53,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,00014349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No41c100,000$41,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,00017842.7%76 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Yes58c100,000$58,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,00017840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1153…df79backed Yes52c95,532$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,532.281346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes58c88,657$51,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,435.2124441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ec…21a0backed Yes58c85,000$49,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,7004445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes32c81,546$26,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,543.931,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes55c79,870$43,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,897.021,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Yes56c79,675$44,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,353.95850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Yes79c79,363$62,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,767.115263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Yes53c78,055$41,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,685.8511647.4%55 W · 61 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No41c77,874$31,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,937.687544%33 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes54c73,886$40,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,782.611,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes48c71,113$34,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,758.531,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes77c70,288$54,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,158.472,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked No41c70,000$28,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,7007941.8%33 W · 46 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Yes54c68,000$36,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,3603943.6%17 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes49c66,985$33,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,985.2132429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Yes56c65,704$37,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,606.5436031.7%114 W · 246 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…18e7backed No58c65,660$38,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,009.3913037.7%49 W · 81 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Yes56c63,978$35,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,150.1218740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Yes52c62,700$32,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,0969247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes56c61,024$34,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,884.831945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b4…23febacked Yes53c60,145$31,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,268.285745.6%26 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes44c60,000$26,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,399.9727039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked No43c60,000$25,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,599.96627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes52c59,393$30,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,693.3979231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes56c59,152$32,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,269.041,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93eb…c387backed Yes55c55,015$30,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,5028349.4%41 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No41c54,154$22,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,388.0816244.4%72 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Yes52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,999.969451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eb2…33febacked Yes52c48,077$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,076.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…04a9backed No53c48,037$25,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,2802050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No41c46,573$19,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,095.097843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Yes55c45,092$24,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,246.499846.9%46 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes56c44,950$25,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,783.731,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Yes53c42,119$22,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,788.927448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Yes53c40,500$21,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,0351428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad7…ae48backed Yes57c40,000$22,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,2004355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebd…ba30backed Yes42c38,169$16,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,025.8516033.1%53 W · 107 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x457f…2a64backed No44c36,510$15,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,957.732755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb00d…af5fbacked Yes53c35,000$18,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,4509650%48 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes57c34,165$19,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,585.7120844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes58c33,707$19,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,205.9733337.8%126 W · 207 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdfe…030ebacked Yes53c33,500$17,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,7452458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked No40c32,899$13,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,159.4913543%58 W · 77 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Yes56c32,000$17,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,06027345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked No47c31,480$14,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,795.6333538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf072…467abacked Yes53c31,467$16,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,789.59446.8%44 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked Yes53c31,230$16,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,678.094348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf8…71ebbacked Yes53c30,307$16,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,244.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes53c30,189$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,188.6810555.2%58 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed No42c30,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6002937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc1b…9d59backed Yes59c30,000$17,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,3005967.8%40 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Yes53c29,622$15,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,922.162536%9 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Yes55c27,395$15,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,327.4636939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.