TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x10ff…5088

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,882
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: La Liga, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 57 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT66139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 661 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegulabacked Jessica Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.13
Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoebacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$37,469Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+71.9%+$26,947.45
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$23,845Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23,844.82
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskovabacked Marta Kostyuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$798Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$797.72
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$4,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,117.45
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreevabacked Maja Chwalinska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,684Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,684.24
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16,349Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16,348.57
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobollibacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.01
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$266
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19,748Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,748.2
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osakabacked Naomi Osaka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.48
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublevbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13,870Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,869.94
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,713Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+81%+$3,008.13
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$705Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$704.5
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoebacked Hubert Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$555.32
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouamebacked Adolfo Vallejo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.8
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Daniel Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,954Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,954.37
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegulabacked Jessica Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,378.44
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkovabacked Victoria Mboko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$41.36
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Jan-Lennard Struff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$814Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+154.9%+$1,260.81
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boissonbacked Lois Boisson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.98
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutetbacked Vit Kopriva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,902Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+111.3%+$2,118.19
Chisinau: Francesco Maestrelli vs Kimmer Coppejansbacked Francesco Maestrelli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.32
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Pradobacked Juan Carlos Prado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$400.72
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchagabacked Roman Andres Burruchaga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,473Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+54.5%+$802.38
Showing 25 of 661 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT36939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 369 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$56,179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$56,178.54
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$160,333Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$59,915.21
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$69,700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$43,250.69
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$45,351.97
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$108,244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$108,243.99
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$82,799Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+68.3%+$56,542.83
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,499.62
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$84,693Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$59,466.64
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25,174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25,173.9
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$54,341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54,341.02
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$163,994Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$52,357.79
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$94,944Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$32,609.99
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$36,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36,087.35
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$9,144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,144.32
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30,378Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+169%+$51,339.32
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$32,444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32,443.56
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$3,472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,472.05
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$33,208Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+78.7%+$26,136.02
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$68,780Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$23,804.72
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34,009.07
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,685Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,684.61
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,483Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,483.01
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15,315Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$4,614.99
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,183.76
Showing 25 of 369 picks, newest first.
Cricketlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT31543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 315 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Caribbean Premier League: Antigua And Barbuda Falcons vs Guyana Amazon Warriorsbacked Guyana Amazon Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,330Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$1,705.31
Will the match end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.82
Caribbean Premier League: St. Lucia Kings vs Jamaica Kingsmenbacked Jamaica Kingsmen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$893Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$892.54
Will Pakistan win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$278.7
Will England win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,167Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,166.71
Will Sri Lanka win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$435.77
Will the match end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$918Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$918.23
The Hundred: Trent Rockets vs Manchester Super Giantsbacked Trent Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,768Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,768.38
Afghanistan Tour of Ireland ODIs: Ireland vs Afghanistanbacked Ireland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.6
The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leedsbacked Manchester Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$106,817Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+85.1%+$90,848.66
The Hundred, Women: Sunrisers Leeds vs Southern Bravebacked Southern Brave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,611Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,611.04
Caribbean Premier League: Jamaica Kingsmen vs Guyana Amazon Warriorsbacked Guyana Amazon Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,967Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$627.19
The Hundred: Southern Brave vs Manchester Super Giantsbacked Southern Brave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.89
The Hundred: MI London vs Trent Rocketsbacked MI London · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,103Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,103.14
The Hundred, Women: Southern Brave vs Manchester Super Giantsbacked Southern Brave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$578Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$578.2
The Hundred, Women: MI London vs Trent Rocketsbacked MI London · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.32
The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs MI Londonbacked MI London · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$5,212Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+328.6%+$17,127.37
The Hundred, Women: Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spiritbacked London Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,590.19
The Hundred: Welsh Fire vs Southern Bravebacked Southern Brave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$5,349Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,349.28
The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs Southern Bravebacked Southern Brave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,802Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,801.99
The Hundred: MI London vs Manchester Super Giantsbacked MI London · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$6,741Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$2,493.33
The Hundred: London Spirit vs Southern Bravebacked London Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.71
T20 Lanka Premier League: Colombo Kaps vs Galle Gallantsbacked Colombo Kaps · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$878Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$878.49
The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Southern Bravebacked London Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.7
The Hundred: Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Firebacked Birmingham Phoenix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,563Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,563.1
Showing 25 of 315 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT27141.7%113 W · 158 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 271 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$46.76
Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 3 Manchester United FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.14
Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 2 Manchester United FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.16
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.89
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,434Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,433.53
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.73
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.71
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,532.4
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,181Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,181.29
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 0 Manchester City FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.4
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.74
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 0 Liverpool FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.49
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 1 Liverpool FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.45
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.25
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,699.99
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$221.39
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+63%+$97.05
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.42
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.68
Exact Score: Burnley FC 0 - 1 Manchester City FC?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$911Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$911.32
Exact Score: Burnley FC 0 - 2 Manchester City FC?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$14
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 3 Leeds United FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.59
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+41%+$225.45
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,743Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,743.13
Showing 25 of 271 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT7140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21,470Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+135.7%+$29,129.66
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11,389Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+165%+$18,787.98
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$25
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$870Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$870.35
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$175.79
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.3
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.52
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Liverpool FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+128.4%+$71.51
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Liverpool FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.77
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 2 FC Bayern München?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$35.81
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$569.31
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.83
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.72
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$387.31
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.58
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$396.14
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$882Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$881.58
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.05
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$582.45
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$410.78
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$406.79
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$924Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+161.6%+$1,493.15
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$73.79
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$16.66
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT4042.5%17 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+72%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
La Liga — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 1 Girona FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+191.1%+$64.08
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 1 FC Barcelona?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.11
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 FC Barcelona?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$23.95
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 FC Barcelona?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.1
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,328Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+46.6%+$618.52
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$728Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$364.94
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Levante UD end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+456.3%+$205.13
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+82.6%+$198.29
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$10.08
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$98.66
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.78
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.94
Will Getafe CF vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.79
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.93
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$82.26
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$292.41
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$117.66
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+393.9%+$728.26
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$117.53
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15.06
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+522.1%+$129.61
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34.73
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$233.56
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$247.72
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+205.7%+$1,101.09
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT3237.5%12 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: Draw at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$38.9
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$738Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$737.8
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$144.86
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$143.25
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$267.08
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$652Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$651.59
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$518.2
Will SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+123.8%+$381.65
SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+130.9%+$147.9
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.74
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.87
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.37
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$17.63
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+63.9%+$68.66
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$565.75
Will Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$45.58
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$54.79
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+101.9%+$18.87
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+369.6%+$455.39
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66.23
Will AS Roma vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+720.6%+$357.46
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.74
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$13.61
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$116.62
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT2725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$40
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 1 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$443Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.67
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 0 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.88
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.28
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 0 FC Porto?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.07
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.35
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.84
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.35
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$326.72
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.44
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.1
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.79
Will HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.05
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.31
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$27.52
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.25
Will Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.28
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.08
Will AZ win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+92.8%+$39.07
Will Rangers FC win on 2025-12-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+26.6%+$38.86
Will Rangers FC win on 2025-11-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+33.4%+$3.96
Will FC Porto vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$12.17
Will Celtic FC win on 2025-11-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$14.2
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ilia Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,468.25
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$891Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+117.6%+$1,048.43
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Belal Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$722Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$722.2
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Edmen Shahbazyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.86
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Farés Ziam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$476.56
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bryce Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,441Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$750.59
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Bruno Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.79
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Priscila Cachoeira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.15
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Joanderson Brito · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,906Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+71.5%+$1,362.35
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Jeisla Chaves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$56.33
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Alice Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$96.14
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Melissa Gatto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.13
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Tresean Gore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+285.6%+$165.38
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Kai Kamaka III · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$184.13
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Joe Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+182.7%+$199.57
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Yousri Belgaroui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+115.8%+$22.18
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Ignacio Bahamondes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.16
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Lance Gibson Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$36.51
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Marcin Tybura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.83
All 19 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$129.58
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$71.69
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+111.9%+$106.89
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$212.52
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+34%+$389.26
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$229.84
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-03-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+89.8%+$104.59
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.91
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$143.07
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-02-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+38.9%+$86.66
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+108.3%+$278.78
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$226.92
Will Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66.71
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.95
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$121.46
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$70.16
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+46.4%+$12.26
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+52.1%+$21.15
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20.47
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+105.2%+$69.37
Will Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+228%+$48.77
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-03-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$402.99
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$51.43
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22.01
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$39.29
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$184.97
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$225.76
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.92
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,274Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+492.9%+$6,279.06
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+61%+$57.55
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,092Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$323.01
Trail Blazers vs. 76ersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,140.95
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$108.55
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$207.18
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50.89
All 8 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,195Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,194.6
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$648.7
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$5,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$5,002.08
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,607Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$2,606.76
All 4 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30.12
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+267.3%+$143.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,249Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$750.78
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padresbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.67
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+196%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,320Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+196%+$2,587.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.