Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5dd3a323c6cc2021dfb80353417d9444a5d6b235be09ebf6b752f8821702e40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,995$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 27c | 4,428$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.59 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 61c | 2,700$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.62 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 60c | 1,664$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.6 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 25c | 1,364$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.16 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 6c | 1,116$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 77c | 899.13$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.64 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 60c | 786.26$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.38 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Yes | 8c | 656.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 596.09$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.05 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…f324backed Yes | 40c | 575$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 5c | 485.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 459.29$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 60c | 446.53$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.74 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…11e8backed Yes | 23c | 442.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 28c | 393.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 25c | 335.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 5c | 271.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 39c | 237.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 40c | 226.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 60c | 212.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 67c | 189.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58ba…1ae8backed Yes | 8c | 187.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 67c | 148.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f3…9576backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 14c | 89.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 38c | 87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…2882backed Yes | 40c | 72.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Yes | 28c | 72.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 40c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 77c | 56.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…40a0backed Yes | 19c | 55.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed No | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Yes | 30c | 54.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Yes | 33c | 49.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 39c | 31.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Yes | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…6cefbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 80c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 61c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked No | 61c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.