Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x185d6b8f70189c43e6babbca5c67b44062ce5c48a65ed1dd8b05d25f324a32f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 3,021$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.18 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 24c | 2,484$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 4c | 1,950$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…a210backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 5c | 539$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 5c | 358.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…db9dbacked No | 73c | 279.45$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 4c | 270.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 259.54$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 252.43$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 27c | 224.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 20c | 151.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 57.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 55.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 75c | 45.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 73c | 36.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 78c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 78c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.