TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,026,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,264,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,026,368 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 898 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked No43c338,425$146,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,141.396358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No42c328,635$138,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138,826.721428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-46.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes49c302,903$148,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,168.942850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes59c100,452$59,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,738.2433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No58c85,162$49,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,287.53,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes58c64,931$37,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,568.061,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No40c50,700$20,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,1134228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes58c50,000$29,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,000850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Yes57c40,000$22,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,2001957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes57c33,682$19,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,412.7938748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed No40c30,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0006251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Yes67c28,206$18,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,299.965455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No41c27,635$11,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,359.5769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1c…6535backed No40c26,000$10,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4301637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2271…1cfcbacked Yes58c22,058$12,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,264.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes58c20,611$12,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,596.4417251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes56c20,451$11,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,992.8434144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No40c20,000$8,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,049.9916652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No43c19,204$8,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,257.723743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes58c17,241$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,241.382254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes57c13,799$7,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,872.9710361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87a1…b6babacked Yes58c13,793$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,793.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x408c…9a1dbacked Yes38c13,688$5,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,538.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked No41c13,398$5,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,493.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked No40c12,500$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.981855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes56c11,886$6,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,250.8633244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes77c11,604$8,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,694.71,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes46c11,422$5,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,142.746448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes62c11,411$7,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.5353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No40c11,251$4,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5485923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes61c10,649$6,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed No72c10,621$7,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,621.691957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No40c10,506$4,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,213.8176234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed No43c10,031$4,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,312.543548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Yes57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked No40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.916058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes72c9,850$7,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.342556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Yes58c9,001$5,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,782.5410154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked No40c8,456$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,382.381650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Yes59c7,671$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,170.943056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed No42c7,543$3,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,167.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No41c7,224$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.162452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed No41c7,182$2,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968.691145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes56c7,086$3,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,117.6410553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No39c7,000$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7309831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed No39c6,400$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Yes58c6,034$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.48933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Yes59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4601540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Yes75c5,860$4,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes54c5,794$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.3213129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09e0…e546backed No43c5,775$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No40c5,266$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.392157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes73c5,166$3,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.722766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes55c4,637$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.342,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No40c4,501$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.4311354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes58c4,500$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8903357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes59c4,350$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7807057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes59c4,200$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.964772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Yes49c4,037$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.362142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes57c4,007$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.9428241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Yes58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6801566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes40c4,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+154.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes49c4,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.991275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2682…582abacked No42c4,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes58c3,850$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6173141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Yes52c3,704$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.54728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Yes58c3,621$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.692470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No25c3,609$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.0614315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes29c3,448$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.288844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes56c3,333$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.524351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No28c3,286$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.413139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…e1b2backed No41c3,035$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.411540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes59c3,008$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.288143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Yes28c3,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Yes36c2,845$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.063941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes36c2,778$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked No41c2,700$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…8296backed No42c2,683$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Yes57c2,625$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.447254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes60c2,605$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.679646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed Yes59c2,516$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.562552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.992948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed No41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes50c2,318$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.218932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes55c2,200$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9925944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No42c2,199$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.915655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8003762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Yes58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8402755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8009048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed No42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8402661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No32c1,935$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.834327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes57c1,930$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.8238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No40c1,900$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes49c1,800$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.224050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Yes58c1,798$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.234975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Yes57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.393429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Yes57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No42c1,754$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.632222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.