TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,500
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,285

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,500 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd37a…2358backed No79c7,593$5,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.2962452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No78c5,658$4,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.711,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a19…2833backed Yes22c5,536$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed No78c5,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No71c4,937$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.982,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes21c4,613$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.78037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed No65c4,584$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x702b…dedebacked Yes22c4,532$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9972142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+68.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed No77c4,219$3,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.622259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes21c4,022$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.6376234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed No41c3,973$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.63138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No80c3,751$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.0813139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No79c3,020$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed No79c2,999$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.7910154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No79c2,808$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.51,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed Yes62c2,664$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a16…1050backed Yes27c2,193$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes15c2,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.955425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa257…ea6ebacked Yes61c1,804$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b97…3f54backed Yes28c1,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No71c1,711$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.273,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes6c1,444$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7814315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes26c1,154$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes29c1,050$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.728241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No78c900$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.2335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes60c801.27$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.5844655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Yes39c800$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No70c723.82$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.9824541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd2…bc24backed Yes36c722.39$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Yes6c718.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.041926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ce…ab45backed Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+74%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Yes11c642.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706366.7%42 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No46c599.61$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.571,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes26c576.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Yes28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes9c499.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-44.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004542.2%19 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c0…7e68backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes21c471.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes65c439.64$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.81266.7%8 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Yes19c394.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Yes60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454b…5b8bbacked Yes65c322.82$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2c9…4b20backed Yes64c313$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes20c311.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.243627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes51c300$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15410251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941f…acfabacked Yes18c280$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+69.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf680…2c59backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe35b…d8d0backed Yes29c258.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.961450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5538646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No32c244$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…485abacked Yes37c242.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+117.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5d…2668backed Yes17c238.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed Yes21c230.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes19c225$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed No37c224$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.938158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes21c221.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.53953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbd…4405backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes12c213.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8726433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes28c200.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.059252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a33…8fd8backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc403…f417backed Yes23c195.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No78c194.63$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8219446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d1…c0f2backed Yes29c189.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes47c187.92$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.322540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa83…4965backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…5f1dbacked Yes11c174.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e79…2d68backed Yes29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes28c169$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.796553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No63c142.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8639558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked No79c141.01$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.918353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes19c138$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.971127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Yes43c137.05$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.311741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd638…b011backed Yes64c123.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.11366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aac…b7e1backed Yes62c122.68$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No54c122.08$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.124327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Yes27c121.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.91353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce1e…2dbcbacked No79c118.25$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No60c115$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.28541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc09…21d0backed Yes22c113.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89eb…8da5backed Yes29c108.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbf…f4e6backed No65c101.62$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.573565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2938845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2324…2b86backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c7…a89dbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f10…c927backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.