TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kai Kamaka IIIof Kai Kamaka III, Dakota Hope
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$206,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe524…d34fbacked Dakota Hope41c19,000$7,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,789.9911554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Kai Kamaka III59c16,945$9,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,947.833339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Dakota Hope51c14,090$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.9629151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Kai Kamaka III62c12,212$7,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,694.867656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Dakota Hope1c10,800$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcd…445ebacked Dakota Hope1c10,800$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Dakota Hope1c10,800$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Dakota Hope1c10,800$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick5cpaid+515.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Dakota Hope44c7,511$3,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,313.613453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf99e…4d03backed Dakota Hope1c7,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Dakota Hope1c7,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Kai Kamaka III54c6,991$3,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,215.728143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Dakota Hope1c5,703$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191a…b47dbacked Dakota Hope1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Dakota Hope38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.993452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Kai Kamaka III49c4,743$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.9415939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Dakota Hope1c4,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Dakota Hope3c3,800$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Dakota Hope1c3,700$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+215.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Dakota Hope52c2,800$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.874047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Dakota Hope1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick5cpaid+238.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Dakota Hope38c2,470$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.623842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Dakota Hope59c2,360$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.7254056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Dakota Hope39c2,316$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.610949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Kai Kamaka III57c1,970$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.672343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Kai Kamaka III56c1,811$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.322343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Kai Kamaka III39c1,765$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.3114551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…db86backed Kai Kamaka III47c1,545$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.851855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kai Kamaka III45c1,467$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.1236048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Kai Kamaka III43c1,359$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.69164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Dakota Hope41c1,232$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.9816846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Dakota Hope1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kai Kamaka III58c1,199$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.142254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Kai Kamaka III45c1,139$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.7127448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kai Kamaka III43c1,077$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.6621247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Dakota Hope1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Dakota Hope49c999.03$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.4316945.6%77 W · 92 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Kai Kamaka III72c997.07$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.792871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kai Kamaka III50c988.65$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.5820139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Kai Kamaka III60c975.46$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.8510253.9%55 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dakota Hope39c965.26$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.1615540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Dakota Hope51c959.86$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.167647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Dakota Hope1c950$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Kai Kamaka III37c925.08$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.15736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Kai Kamaka III48c912.56$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.862744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Kai Kamaka III45c903.48$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.382646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Dakota Hope43c898.42$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.323246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Kai Kamaka III65c839.71$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.523237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Kai Kamaka III61c811$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.2636745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Dakota Hope39c784.68$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kai Kamaka III44c749.1$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.986045%27 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Dakota Hope40c729.98$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.433933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Kai Kamaka III52c706.13$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.922438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49dc…2287backed Dakota Hope41c703.98$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Kai Kamaka III63c691.66$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.89637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Kai Kamaka III46c620.53$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.0812235.2%43 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Kai Kamaka III58c609.99$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.533852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Dakota Hope43c569.69$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7226140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Kai Kamaka III49c551.44$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9612147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9303…0bc7backed Dakota Hope43c524.65$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfccc…d978backed Dakota Hope58c503.93$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.451145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Kai Kamaka III60c488.14$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9935764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Kai Kamaka III42c475.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.989949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Kai Kamaka III48c463.58$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5913951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked Dakota Hope39c397.71$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.111618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Kai Kamaka III50c397.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.543732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Dakota Hope42c389.56$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6110843.5%47 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Dakota Hope41c387.02$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6810542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Dakota Hope69c376.46$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.211364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Kai Kamaka III51c375.77$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.131952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48d0…6ab2backed Dakota Hope42c347.47$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.947463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Kai Kamaka III59c337.98$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.574955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Dakota Hope13c333$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.982334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Dakota Hope14c333$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.582846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed Kai Kamaka III58c327.11$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Dakota Hope42c325.8$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.751533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c82…b7d3backed Dakota Hope42c323.41$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.11650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Dakota Hope42c319.96$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3820933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Kai Kamaka III40c317.19$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.679638.5%37 W · 59 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7bc…0f85backed Kai Kamaka III61c299.97$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.992277.3%17 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kai Kamaka III57c292.17$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9614530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Dakota Hope53c291.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Dakota Hope43c274.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8215556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kai Kamaka III47c272.37$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.2133132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Dakota Hope40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Kai Kamaka III57c238.13$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.433948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Kai Kamaka III64c237.11$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.364158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Dakota Hope10c231.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.431241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9413…11acbacked Dakota Hope34c223.83$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.19459.6%56 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Dakota Hope14c216.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.632231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ad…bda1backed Kai Kamaka III61c199.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Kai Kamaka III58c199.97$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.999644.8%43 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f16…301ebacked Kai Kamaka III54c194.66$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1a…a2bfbacked Dakota Hope42c194.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.065667.9%38 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed Dakota Hope38c192.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.176475%48 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Dakota Hope22c183.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.576155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x501a…b930backed Dakota Hope50c179.74$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.521361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Dakota Hope43c172.95$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.378150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7465…caa8backed Kai Kamaka III51c168.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0918160.8%110 W · 71 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Kai Kamaka III47c168.51$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.667154.9%39 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.