Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-03-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a97ac28ee61fdb8e60f1406a6bf7fb89ad30256b7647d7f9940749a0b0a1fbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,491 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 12,609$9,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,023.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 24c | 12,514$3,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,003.34 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 2,910$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.77 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 25c | 1,933$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.48 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 1,901$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.27 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 24c | 912.67$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 8c | 648.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked No | 77c | 627.73$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…875ebacked Yes | 20c | 469$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 25c | 413$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 25c | 401.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 12c | 397.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…5a49backed No | 76c | 325.2$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f4…e01abacked Yes | 25c | 321.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…e260backed No | 75c | 192.68$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 76c | 163.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9d…8ce0backed Yes | 13c | 158.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…6bf8backed No | 74c | 122.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 76c | 118.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 78c | 116.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…a6bfbacked Yes | 26c | 116.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed No | 76c | 114$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Yes | 14c | 104.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…5b50backed No | 74c | 75.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 75.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed No | 76c | 73.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…5fe1backed Yes | 29c | 70.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 76c | 69.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 75c | 67.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 60.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 76c | 57.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 75c | 56.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…bda2backed No | 74c | 55.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…fc01backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 45.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked No | 77c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 75c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Samsunspor win on 2026-03-12?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
- Will Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.