Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f7f76d64eecfd6c2b428b54c4b18446358655860d013b9d0a3c8a9dbc2613f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,352 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 5,822$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.56 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 3,974$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.89 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 31c | 1,800$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 1,420$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.51 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,174$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.62 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 69c | 896.58$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 31c | 222$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…e260backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…4f2abacked Yes | 23c | 198$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked No | 71c | 145.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…8ddbbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 28c | 112.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d9…91a2backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 72c | 88.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 30c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Yes | 37c | 78.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -9.3wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 32c | 68.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Yes | 26c | 66.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 19c | 54.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 32c | 54.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 72c | 50.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 78c | 49.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 43.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 70c | 41.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 65c | 41.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 35.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 69c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 63c | 32.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
- Will Samsunspor win on 2026-03-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.