TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spainof Spain, Argentina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,352,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,023,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,352,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 16,525 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e25…d49ebacked Spain59c3,426,845$2,019,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406,902.863360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x669d…c044backed Argentina41c3,062,488$1,266,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266,053.51911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4e…0232backed Spain59c2,840,927$1,682,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158,782.523354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Argentina41c1,192,629$492,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492,063.5111642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Argentina41c1,101,209$452,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452,001.639142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ad…c939backed Spain59c1,095,000$647,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447,137.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Argentina41c994,957$402,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,957.585749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Argentina41c980,848$398,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398,618.427433.8%25 W · 49 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Argentina41c747,063$304,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304,427.985334%18 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Argentina41c743,015$302,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,903.085322.6%12 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7583…4df2backed Spain59c730,000$431,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298,9252040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b9…4affbacked Argentina41c588,863$242,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,155.974040%16 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Spain60c588,426$354,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234,257.72,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Argentina35c586,978$204,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,337.32,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Argentina41c456,572$185,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185,352.57147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-84.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked Spain65c445,021$288,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156,502.769948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe2…56e9backed Argentina41c434,582$177,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,955.151040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Argentina9c406,408$38,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,564.866846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Spain59c383,312$226,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156,541.8970244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Argentina41c355,534$145,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145,151.7910548.6%51 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Argentina10c350,273$36,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,416.9817840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Argentina41c350,000$143,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,629.521,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4f…e5f3backed Spain59c347,003$202,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144,006.281952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b9…2084backed Spain59c340,000$200,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,4002218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-73.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Spain60c318,043$190,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,043.456524.6%16 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c78…77f1backed Spain59c308,859$181,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127,722.386048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Argentina37c307,777$114,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,125.848246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed Spain74c301,568$224,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,208.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Argentina40c299,104$120,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120,788.0124028.8%69 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Spain64c288,041$182,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,057.0114139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ddd…c933backed Spain58c285,178$166,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,018.012176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Argentina39c284,999$111,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,055.6438734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d81…b71ebacked Spain60c279,865$167,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,645.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Argentina41c278,126$113,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,173.5417452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Spain71c276,582$195,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,904.942729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Spain69c242,452$168,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,178.9222139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2092…b6d8backed Argentina41c235,872$96,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,707.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Argentina41c232,425$95,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,969.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Spain73c220,248$160,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,915.2136939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Argentina41c219,477$88,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,901.8821836.2%79 W · 139 L-19.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ca5…fd56backed Argentina20c214,638$42,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,391.482222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dab…22e1backed Spain59c203,539$120,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,953.591533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spain59c203,298$119,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,572.331,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b21…a178backed Argentina39c200,000$78,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,745.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Argentina1c195,000$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.51468.2%12 W · 134 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+90.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf020…3212backed Argentina38c185,574$70,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,222.18540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Spain62c163,947$101,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,074.721,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Argentina30c163,920$48,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,619.9532429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Argentina41c159,999$65,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,999.4915843%68 W · 90 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f00…73cebacked Argentina9c158,652$14,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,290.955728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9097…0ef0backed Argentina6c157,559$10,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,092.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fae…4079backed Argentina41c150,049$61,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,517.946833.8%23 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Spain63c141,125$88,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,454.017941.8%33 W · 46 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Spain67c140,019$93,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,288.483941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked Spain77c138,166$105,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,268.2823540.4%95 W · 140 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Spain60c136,566$81,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,967.72661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Argentina29c131,517$38,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,046.4979231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ebd…38cfbacked Argentina4c130,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6001040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+157.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…ea94backed Spain71c127,151$89,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,199.3513725.5%35 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Argentina36c122,068$43,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,643.4177152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Spain58c120,608$69,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,655.3222348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Spain58c119,996$69,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,398.4615950.3%80 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa88…7f0ebacked Argentina41c119,881$48,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,551.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e77…6325backed Argentina41c117,914$48,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,490.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0d…c476backed Argentina41c113,332$46,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,465.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x440a…035abacked Argentina34c112,521$38,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,533.481414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d18…24a6backed Spain59c112,334$66,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,056.832466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Argentina41c107,925$44,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,290.9640239.8%160 W · 242 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076b…57afbacked Argentina41c104,036$42,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,463.323545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd849…6ac7backed Spain59c103,179$61,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,045.472176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f90…21fabacked Spain64c102,794$65,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,371.314057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Spain63c100,035$62,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,250.189943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Argentina41c100,000$41,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,999.941233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Spain60c98,220$58,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,258.21450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Argentina40c95,000$38,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,337.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da4…367ebacked Argentina23c94,341$21,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,874.086943.5%30 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2de…6781backed Argentina34c86,047$29,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,389.62812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-78.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd273…17eabacked Argentina9c84,390$7,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,472.084228.6%12 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1c…82c6backed Argentina39c82,012$31,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,960.710653.8%57 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Argentina39c81,852$32,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,214.33321.2%7 W · 26 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-56.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Spain59c80,000$46,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,199.96627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…e03cbacked Spain74c78,772$57,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,818.231580%12 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Argentina22c78,546$17,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,466.4941331%128 W · 285 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6340…e272backed Spain59c77,970$46,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,637.629161.5%56 W · 35 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed Argentina41c77,781$31,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,890.077114.1%10 W · 61 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Argentina15c76,247$11,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,436.6525038.8%97 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Argentina16c75,351$12,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,302.178,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f47…d66ebacked Spain74c74,457$55,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,103.934566.7%30 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc289…ab37backed Argentina34c73,536$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00016947.3%80 W · 89 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a0…0df2backed Spain58c72,629$42,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,168.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x335d…8c00backed Argentina41c72,366$29,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,6704573.3%33 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c23…d48fbacked Spain60c72,250$43,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,655.32988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c80…6ff1backed Spain70c70,945$50,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,934.6828439.1%111 W · 173 L+1.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57db…85efbacked Argentina41c70,000$28,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,699.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02fa…04d4backed Argentina34c69,315$23,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,861.121926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c58…a5a1backed Argentina41c68,704$28,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,340.282520%5 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Argentina41c68,333$27,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,683.23718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x442f…e7a2backed Argentina41c68,098$28,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,090.311038.2%42 W · 68 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spain59c68,085$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,085.1118740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked Argentina41c67,764$27,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,725.134949%24 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.