Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f584f7d9405ac1e0382f7faff05e6ba19096386834d32378f265e18f056f991

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,486 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	57c	20,716$11,860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,855.95	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf329…ea10backed Over	42c	11,799$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000.49	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4911…5a6cbacked Over	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Over	45c	4,444$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	55c	2,900$1,595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,305	864	52.7%455 W · 409 L	+26.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c1…a09ebacked Over	44c	2,273$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	56c	2,077$1,163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$913.84	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under	56c	1,857$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$817.22	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Over	44c	1,500$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	229	43.7%100 W · 129 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Over	44c	1,250$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	150	54%81 W · 69 L	+10.5wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Over	17c	1,100$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.07	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Over	44c	690$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.55	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76aa…58cebacked Over	44c	681.82$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	97	60.8%59 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	44c	662.35$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.44	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Over	44c	600$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x965f…c5b7backed Over	44c	574.68$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.86	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Over	43c	499.92$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.97	957	39.5%378 W · 579 L	-18.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	59c	441.83$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.96	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Over	45c	333.44$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	105	49.5%52 W · 53 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under	57c	304$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.02	888	52.7%468 W · 420 L	+13.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f2…ca6abacked Under	57c	300.82$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.35	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over	38c	280$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.2	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	24cpaid	+63.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15c2…345abacked Over	44c	250$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	43c	232.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.74	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e78…fb8abacked Over	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca38…0b7dbacked Over	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-13.8wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-41%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x16d6…89d4backed Over	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe734…721fbacked Over	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	81	65.4%53 W · 28 L	+7.5wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Over	44c	227$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.88	235	40.4%95 W · 140 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	44c	222.97$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.11	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Over	38c	184.21$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	53cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under	56c	136.83$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.48	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	90	36.7%33 W · 57 L	-6.1wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67bc…fd10backed Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-3.5wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ecc…415abacked Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	287	47%135 W · 152 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	332	21.7%72 W · 260 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f98…00d7backed Over	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Under	56c	104.84$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.13	489	37%181 W · 308 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under	56c	103.64$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.6	660	56.8%375 W · 285 L	+34.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8278…ad93backed Over	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	263	44.5%117 W · 146 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	55c	93.26$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.6	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7932…bb2fbacked Over	44c	83.89$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.91	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	57c	79.23$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee83…81bebacked Over	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	44c	65.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Over	23c	60.09$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Over	43c	60$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	338	47.9%162 W · 176 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e11…557fbacked Over	44c	60$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	202	53%107 W · 95 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under	58c	57.71$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.37	1,313	48.9%642 W · 671 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca77…d7a8backed Over	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…da73backed Over	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	-5.1wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7188…df94backed Over	36c	55.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed Under	29c	50.47$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	253	28.1%71 W · 182 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e1…06bbbacked Over	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	241	62.2%150 W · 91 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over	22c	48.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	341	2.9%10 W · 331 L	-132.4wins	-0.39per pick	42cpaid	-94%equal weight	10-0.36 edge/pick
0x660e…76ccbacked Over	44c	45.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	192	41.1%79 W · 113 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	197	42.1%83 W · 114 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3386…8e59backed Under	57c	40.4$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	54	72.2%39 W · 15 L	+5.8wins	+0.11per pick	62cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f75…ce35backed Over	42c	39.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	214	39.7%85 W · 129 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under	57c	39.45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.89	1,390	46.3%644 W · 746 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under	58c	36.74$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.58	1,459	53.9%787 W · 672 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…ac74backed Over	43c	34.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc370…d8d9backed Over	44c	34.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1bf…b83cbacked Under	60c	33.1$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.4	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.40per pick	40cpaid	+115.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5332…8af4backed Over	38c	27.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e48…c701backed Over	77c	26.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	61c	24.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.78	268	41.8%112 W · 156 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	57c	22.17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.53	632	55.7%352 W · 280 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab95…6c79backed Under	57c	22.05$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.57	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Argentina (-4.5)Spain won
Spread: Argentina (-5.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Argentina won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event