TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Argentina (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spainof Argentina, Spain
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e3e…f882backed Argentina1c20,070$216 inLost-$216.0675729.3%222 W · 535 L-23.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Argentina1c17,000$85 inLost-$8551315.6%80 W · 433 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4566…5319backed Argentina1c10,693$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Argentina1c7,513$42 inLost-$41.5660511.4%69 W · 536 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Argentina1c6,930$39 inLost-$39.58,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad3f…0228backed Argentina1c5,756$40 inLost-$40759.3%7 W · 68 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Argentina1c5,748$29 inLost-$29504%2 W · 48 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Argentina1c5,208$42 inLost-$41.661,24043.7%542 W · 698 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Argentina1c3,600$18 inLost-$18917.7%7 W · 84 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-64.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c2a…35a1backed Argentina1c3,430$21 inLost-$20.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0984…5933backed Argentina1c2,640$15 inLost-$1510836.1%39 W · 69 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…6568backed Argentina0c2,500$10 inLost-$104910.2%5 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Argentina1c2,000$10 inLost-$1019317.1%33 W · 160 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5945…727abacked Argentina1c2,000$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked Argentina1c1,000$10 inLost-$101414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+62.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.