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Fifa International · resolved market

Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,687 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacc9…c790backed Over7c4,004$280 inLost-$280.274131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Over7c2,498$175 inLost-$174.86504%2 W · 48 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over4c2,018$75 inLost-$74.978,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acb…e264backed Over7c1,374$100 inLost-$1004723.4%11 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Over7c999.98$70 inLost-$7054917.9%98 W · 451 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over7c807.4$60 inLost-$60.1375729.3%222 W · 535 L-23.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c36…f5adbacked Over7c714.29$50 inLost-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd3…270fbacked Over8c669.13$52 inLost-$52.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over7c499.98$35 inLost-$352,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf713…a97bbacked Over6c404.92$24 inLost-$24.36331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Over7c357.14$25 inLost-$2529338.2%112 W · 181 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Over7c300$21 inLost-$218838.6%34 W · 54 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x185a…3853backed Over7c285.71$20 inLost-$201010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over7c285.71$20 inLost-$201,38815.1%210 W · 1,178 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02da…a9fabacked Over7c271.14$19 inLost-$18.9840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x999f…addbbacked Over9c213.39$19 inLost-$192927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.