Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ea6234d6afa9bf54b16df2c011608f6e7d06f2bd3a2263b1001d4ce7bbf398

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spainof Argentina, Spain
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,048,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $999,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,048,001 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Argentina	2c	113,304$2,383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,382.86	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Argentina	2c	74,674$1,392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,391.61	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Argentina	2c	70,806$1,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,292.18	297	40.1%119 W · 178 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Argentina	2c	44,086$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.56	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Argentina	2c	41,601$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.51	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Argentina	2c	32,000$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.12	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Argentina	2c	25,000$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.54	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Argentina	1c	24,919$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.1	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Argentina	2c	23,194$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.3	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Argentina	2c	17,755$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.04	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Argentina	2c	15,908$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.92	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Argentina	2c	15,771$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.54	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed Argentina	2c	13,785$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.78	462	30.1%139 W · 323 L	-13.8wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Argentina	2c	12,530$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.51	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb763…cce5backed Argentina	3c	11,913$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc08a…92a4backed Argentina	2c	10,748$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Argentina	2c	10,334$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.36	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Argentina	2c	10,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Argentina	2c	8,300$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.7	213	33.3%71 W · 142 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…a2cebacked Argentina	2c	8,224$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	60	30%18 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Argentina	3c	7,948$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	154	41.6%64 W · 90 L	+12.7wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Argentina	2c	7,855$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.04	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…03b9backed Argentina	1c	6,153$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	409	12%49 W · 360 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155f…c61ebacked Argentina	2c	5,544$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7a…fdbebacked Argentina	2c	5,212$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	92	47.8%44 W · 48 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Argentina	2c	5,180$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	4%2 W · 48 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Argentina	2c	5,067$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.75	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf305…b3d2backed Argentina	1c	4,630$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x640b…d920backed Argentina	2c	4,497$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.49	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0510…10c4backed Argentina	2c	4,314$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Argentina	2c	3,681$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.72	193	17.1%33 W · 160 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec7…6aadbacked Argentina	1c	3,581$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Argentina	2c	3,433$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.79	1,240	43.7%542 W · 698 L	+13.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Argentina	2c	3,141$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.25	451	20.6%93 W · 358 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked Argentina	2c	3,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…9845backed Argentina	1c	2,956$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.16	78	5.1%4 W · 74 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Argentina	2c	2,895$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Argentina	2c	2,872$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.72	658	35%230 W · 428 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Argentina	2c	2,752$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	108	15.7%17 W · 91 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Argentina	2c	2,671$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.28	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0984…5933backed Argentina	2c	2,453$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	108	36.1%39 W · 69 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad3f…0228backed Argentina	2c	2,414$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	75	9.3%7 W · 68 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Argentina	2c	2,233$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.14	456	27.9%127 W · 329 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…032dbacked Argentina	1c	2,226$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	121	23.1%28 W · 93 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3974…cb78backed Argentina	2c	2,105$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	4cpaid	+693.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a5…6f1fbacked Argentina	2c	1,989$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Argentina	1c	1,965$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9c36…f5adbacked Argentina	2c	1,765$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Argentina	2c	1,605$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.49	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Argentina	2c	1,558$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.56	337	29.1%98 W · 239 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Argentina	2c	1,474$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	91	7.7%7 W · 84 L	-9.8wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c2a…35a1backed Argentina	2c	1,444$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Argentina	2c	1,365$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.69	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Argentina	1c	1,360$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1597…6edebacked Argentina	2c	1,316$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	470	29.1%137 W · 333 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9242…7065backed Argentina	2c	1,129$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x046a…9705backed Argentina	2c	1,105$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked Argentina	2c	1,099$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4c…eda2backed Argentina	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa246…d3b5backed Argentina	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x751f…e4ddbacked Argentina	2c	997.07$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	879	38.6%339 W · 540 L	+8.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4efc…2d8dbacked Argentina	2c	809.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	98	39.8%39 W · 59 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Argentina	2c	770.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Argentina	2c	768.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Argentina	2c	749.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7233…2e7bbacked Argentina	2c	736.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Argentina	2c	722.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Argentina	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb02…0f88backed Argentina	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…6568backed Argentina	2c	526.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	49	10.2%5 W · 44 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Argentina	3c	446.94$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	657	37.4%246 W · 411 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)this page
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Argentina (-4.5)Spain won
Spread: Argentina (-5.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Argentina won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Argentina won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event