Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-03-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca315cd4f36e9467dde30dbf5e0460cbb87c25ea10fd8cd273b322f320a7046c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 3c | 7,635$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.88 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 7,056$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.26 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 3c | 5,239$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 1,798$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.18 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,112$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 80c | 811.2$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 27c | 640$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked No | 73c | 453.37$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 17.3%14 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 14c | 298.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 8c | 272.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 22c | 238.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…453fbacked No | 80c | 208$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 207.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…67e3backed No | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 73c | 184$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…0c01backed Yes | 18c | 171.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 22c | 141.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…0cd5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 124.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Yes | 19c | 100.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d9…91a2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…c0b5backed Yes | 24c | 97.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 79c | 71.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 24c | 60.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…3bd1backed No | 78c | 48.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…fbedbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 36.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-03-12?this page
- Will HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?No won
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.