TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof Celtics, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,052,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,265,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,052,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,461 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8628…6f0bbacked Celtics54c217,980$117,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,529.513026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed 76ers48c186,912$89,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,687.9736148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Celtics32c150,000$47,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,299.9538248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1602…3674backed Celtics49c149,800$74,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,079.782466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Celtics54c144,520$77,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,647.3712740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed 76ers62c135,919$84,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,434.9419249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed 76ers52c129,219$67,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,057.014456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed 76ers52c80,000$41,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,399.825350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed 76ers48c74,264$35,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,443.3420253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics48c71,645$34,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,578.651,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed 76ers37c55,892$20,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,254.7225925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca5a…7e43backed Celtics34c42,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,399.972941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked 76ers47c41,840$19,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,175.4347848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked 76ers46c40,000$18,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,60017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Celtics54c37,358$20,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,061.717745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics48c35,031$16,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,646.3774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Celtics46c35,000$16,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,099.9966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed 76ers50c31,523$15,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,761.65646.4%26 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked 76ers46c31,215$14,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,856.246352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed 76ers55c31,133$17,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,094.2647144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed 76ers61c31,075$18,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,216.9914856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8634…bbeebacked Celtics31c29,664$9,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,230.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed 76ers65c29,550$19,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,482.3934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Celtics54c29,218$15,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,777.732352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Celtics54c25,000$13,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,495.078939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x968b…e907backed Celtics54c25,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,5001855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed 76ers46c25,000$11,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,499.987149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Celtics53c20,236$10,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,714.058846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked 76ers28c20,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,50037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed 76ers52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,60051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked 76ers46c18,874$8,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,191.9112341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed 76ers50c18,500$9,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,175.9778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked 76ers55c18,182$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,181.822060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers48c17,182$8,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,016.589,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 76ers46c16,676$7,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,038.6385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed 76ers51c16,500$8,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,08512334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked 76ers53c15,617$8,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,392.4626038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Celtics47c14,558$6,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,897.761851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers50c12,522$6,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,313.486,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Celtics48c12,000$5,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7603237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked 76ers47c11,773$5,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,239.781,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Celtics48c11,111$5,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.2876249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2038…9cb5backed Celtics47c11,000$5,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,170944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfadc…472ebacked 76ers54c11,000$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0602777.8%21 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc65d…9f18backed 76ers54c10,500$5,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,830757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked 76ers33c10,449$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,949.4827041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Celtics53c10,077$5,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,390.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42cc…d980backed Celtics47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x776e…b9b6backed 76ers55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee6…90c4backed Celtics26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d0…9317backed 76ers74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Celtics33c9,814$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.8781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Celtics47c9,285$4,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,345.9139349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed 76ers53c9,211$4,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,343.8755346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9335…b772backed 76ers54c9,120$4,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,195.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Celtics52c9,078$4,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.952,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Celtics32c8,952$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.8327917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f6…6f0abacked Celtics47c8,617$4,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.61850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Celtics60c7,815$4,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,690.8313248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed 76ers47c7,378$3,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,934.9347748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed 76ers68c7,339$4,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.6648448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Celtics49c7,314$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.9696447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64fa…2f1fbacked Celtics41c7,072$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Celtics61c7,047$4,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,298.072941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed 76ers46c7,000$3,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7807957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed 76ers54c6,929$3,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.468351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57d…ca8dbacked Celtics50c6,880$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,440728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Celtics48c6,827$3,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2776155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed 76ers47c6,809$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.519445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x258b…2534backed 76ers54c6,709$3,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,086.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bd…9283backed Celtics46c6,706$3,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,084.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed 76ers46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.9718142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817f…9802backed 76ers50c5,950$2,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9751172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 76ers47c5,762$2,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,037.51,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad7a…8ff3backed 76ers54c5,727$3,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,634.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7b…4461backed Celtics46c5,724$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d4…3511backed 76ers54c5,557$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed 76ers54c5,555$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.3110235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4f…9d84backed Celtics46c5,550$2,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,552.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e3…266fbacked 76ers55c5,454$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Celtics48c5,434$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.462,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Celtics42c5,424$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.0159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc7…adffbacked 76ers55c5,271$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.71475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+48.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed 76ers56c5,074$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.1719047.4%90 W · 100 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked 76ers46c5,067$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.3920948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Celtics46c5,000$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27510041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed 76ers52c5,000$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.9313345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed 76ers51c4,850$2,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.853,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa678…5ffabacked Celtics48c4,756$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked 76ers46c4,652$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,511.93148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Celtics49c4,521$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.811,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a78…4353backed Celtics47c4,468$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed 76ers46c4,300$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,321.9476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ce…3c44backed 76ers46c4,089$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.131353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed 76ers52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92016942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked 76ers52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Celtics54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked 76ers52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9203256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f1…f97dbacked Celtics50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d07…9437backed 76ers50c3,990$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.