TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x94d7…bef5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
530
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT26320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 263 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$1,988.37
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21,252Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+54.5%+$11,583.04
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$35,272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$35,272.35
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$5,761Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,760.78
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+300%+$1,350
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36,858Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$36,858.14
France vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,000
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.68
England leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,741Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,741
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37,691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$37,691.19
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20,393Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,392.7
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,000
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$3,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,003.93
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64,921Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$64,920.87
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,525Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+260.4%+$6,575.1
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,271.31
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$3,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,300
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$7,825Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+129.9%+$10,163.51
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,200
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,000
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,700
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$690.79
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26,779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26,779.04
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,818Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,817.74
Showing 25 of 263 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT25925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 259 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA Summer League: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriorsbacked Memphis Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$9,331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,330.65
NBA Summer League: Toronto Raptors vs. Denver Nuggetsbacked Toronto Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$792.4
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$77,135Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+211.4%+$163,033.26
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$47,082.37
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$79,312Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+419.6%+$332,826.15
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16,454Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+108.4%+$17,843.32
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$46,362Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+142.9%+$66,256.98
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$41,480Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+174.1%+$72,197.42
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37,184Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+91%+$33,825.46
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$53,317Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$53,317.26
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$128,123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$128,123.25
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10,292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,292
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$28,628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28,628.14
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$43,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$43,499.94
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$45,653Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45,653.31
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$22,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22,600
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19,358Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,358.17
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13,539Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,539.12
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+195.7%+$65,158.16
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$5,439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,439.42
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$3,907Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,907
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23,322Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23,321.59
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19,392Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,391.81
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16,502Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+306.8%+$50,621.17
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$28,500
Showing 25 of 259 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.