TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,921,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,518,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,921,555 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09b4…7320backed Yes29c2,615,564$748,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867,367.631758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92a…80a7backed No0c438,906$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.122733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed No72c406,507$293,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293,746.2717452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked No72c400,000$286,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286,499.939948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No72c323,088$232,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232,221.641,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No38c320,025$122,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,738.824,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb451…d7b3backed No71c287,798$205,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,306.061346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3f…8517backed No71c242,390$171,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,490.931457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f6…aba9backed Yes79c233,698$183,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,760.062626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes33c149,643$49,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,578.288,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c78…77f1backed No71c144,607$102,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,309.346048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f90…21fabacked No72c125,187$89,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,946.674057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99c4…18e7backed No53c109,285$58,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,019.9213037.7%49 W · 81 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0288…e926backed Yes28c104,223$28,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,561.581553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+95.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No71c100,500$71,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,103.6229740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No72c90,000$64,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,5501,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked No26c79,401$20,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,393.5323540.4%95 W · 140 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d06…7910backed Yes59c73,280$43,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,117.714343.4%62 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e2…9e36backed No72c71,000$50,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,942.53857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Yes28c70,796$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,796.4613742.3%58 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed No53c68,127$36,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,087.3536939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x408f…b2f4backed Yes77c64,952$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,952.174151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed No72c53,202$38,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,172.9910836.1%39 W · 69 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked No71c50,000$35,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,50038734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked No72c49,567$35,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,440.414161%25 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Yes27c47,762$12,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,985.815552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No48c46,965$22,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,737.812,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7583…4df2backed Yes28c43,243$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,243.242040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Yes51c41,319$21,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,055.6166846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No72c41,280$29,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,683.293,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes30c40,000$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,20027039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked No45c38,457$17,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,180.1437223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No72c38,316$27,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,419.391,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd86e…45cebacked No71c36,300$25,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,773.018856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No72c36,239$26,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,115.123,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x381b…4d74backed No71c35,000$24,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,849.988440.5%34 W · 50 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No59c34,309$20,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,086.2524441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No71c34,000$24,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,054.8821333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0569…f656backed No73c33,982$24,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,8921861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd943…3974backed No73c33,954$24,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,871.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf689…9d83backed Yes30c33,251$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,251.21936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No80c32,998$26,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,310.153,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No72c32,400$23,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,389.221,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No71c31,021$21,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,947.5325844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c08…5c69backed No73c28,000$20,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,359.811552.2%60 W · 55 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes27c25,000$6,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,312.1824144.8%108 W · 133 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969a…59ddbacked No72c24,850$17,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,8929247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x119b…ac3ebacked Yes29c23,932$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,931.628944.9%40 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed No72c23,901$17,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,089.4920333.5%68 W · 135 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked No71c23,186$16,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,396.454533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked No73c21,570$15,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,658.5633549%164 W · 171 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes29c21,190$6,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,988.232,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes34c20,554$6,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,568.1679231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed No18c20,133$3,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,653.728229.4%83 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Yes17c20,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,6009943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76be…120ebacked No71c20,000$14,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,2501643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked No73c19,998$14,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,598.1913959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked Yes28c19,765$5,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,280.321136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee96…0634backed Yes64c19,004$12,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,886.051827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes57c18,974$10,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,083.2233337.8%126 W · 207 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed No71c18,000$12,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,7805234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed No72c17,750$12,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,691.257156.3%40 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x225b…9a83backed No71c16,708$11,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,939.529333.8%99 W · 194 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked No15c16,551$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.2251514.2%73 W · 442 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe159…d987backed Yes47c15,144$7,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,086.671346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No47c15,119$7,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,163.0331945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked No71c15,000$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6506842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc65e…3c8fbacked Yes29c15,000$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,612.52552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked No71c14,085$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0008952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No71c13,870$9,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,847.78139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd771…489fbacked No73c13,400$9,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,815.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Yes63c12,993$8,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,767.5510562.9%66 W · 39 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3608…b13dbacked Yes27c12,963$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,462.963036.7%11 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1370…2cfdbacked Yes74c12,600$9,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,248.055156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed No72c11,982$8,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,675.6548441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…7c05backed Yes63c11,376$7,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,227.294632.6%15 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No73c11,214$8,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,187.9245039.6%178 W · 272 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No58c10,906$6,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,335.731,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed No72c10,850$7,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,766.1440239.8%160 W · 242 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d07…a067backed Yes27c10,731$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,830.738247.6%39 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd9f…c675backed Yes47c10,587$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,587.136533.8%22 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8f…8df8backed Yes20c10,543$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,442.7115746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed No28c10,528$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.7526841.8%112 W · 156 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked No72c10,500$7,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,597.4647144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…688abacked Yes46c10,268$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,548.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed No26c10,238$2,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,664.01944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…4418backed Yes28c10,030$2,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,271.9112428.2%35 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb24c…eefebacked Yes27c10,000$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3251030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked No72c10,000$7,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,247.4847643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4939…9adebacked No71c9,844$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0002951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No73c9,774$7,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,134.8129952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f0…416cbacked Yes66c9,731$6,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a6b…6704backed Yes57c9,648$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,148.281573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes52c9,268$4,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.7129916.7%50 W · 249 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed No71c9,230$6,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,530.236149.2%30 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Yes28c9,100$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,575.126320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c83…25d4backed Yes27c9,091$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,590.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+148.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes18c9,000$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,357.53060%18 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed No72c9,000$6,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,502.4850243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed No72c8,873$6,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,423.3924950.2%125 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.