TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,343,870
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,467,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,343,870 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,686 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Spurs57c743,476$421,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321,729.279745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b4e…0232backed Thunder42c599,999$252,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,999.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Thunder42c399,998$167,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167,999.0454539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs58c376,605$217,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159,179.2426753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Spurs58c344,828$200,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144,827.596243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs67c260,562$175,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,741.8885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f4…3eacbacked Thunder21c241,966$51,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,921.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Thunder43c234,422$100,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,042.578763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Thunder42c191,109$80,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,778.0118651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Thunder23c187,904$42,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,805.84825%12 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Thunder1c156,582$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.8248343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Thunder19c147,240$28,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,628.1425925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Thunder19c118,042$22,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,708.885354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Spurs58c110,087$63,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,236.71546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0da…f3f0backed Thunder29c110,000$32,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,399.951353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder34c101,982$34,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,791.6969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs73c98,749$72,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,604.151,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Spurs75c97,258$72,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,618.321,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed Thunder41c89,998$37,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,277.513839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder24c88,491$20,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,850.9914538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Thunder43c84,375$36,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,229.391553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x187a…a22bbacked Thunder43c80,654$34,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,681.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Thunder2c75,900$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.9941227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spurs57c71,273$40,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,373.449945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder42c69,075$29,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,011.2928241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd25…a624backed Thunder31c57,349$17,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,591.191127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-46.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Spurs59c54,532$32,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,371.6527549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Thunder44c49,500$21,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,78027424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Thunder40c46,498$18,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,439.464948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Thunder24c44,788$10,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,708.4910239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Spurs58c43,103$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,103.459725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Thunder7c42,016$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.3119937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…2640backed Thunder22c42,000$9,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,088.951250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs65c41,500$27,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,354.9610248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Thunder43c40,174$17,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,274.8138434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Spurs71c40,048$28,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,440.981,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Thunder44c40,000$17,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,428.4334456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Thunder19c39,783$7,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,742.681020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a3b…88e5backed Thunder43c39,149$16,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,834.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Thunder0c36,623$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.03614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Thunder42c36,000$15,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,119.861241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x293e…4717backed Thunder24c35,091$8,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,344.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Thunder1c34,757$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.485213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Spurs57c34,740$19,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,938.098061.3%49 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Thunder43c34,295$14,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,746.945253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Spurs55c32,117$17,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,452.6856945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Thunder41c31,610$12,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,870.4162347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Spurs56c31,250$17,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,75014857.4%85 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Thunder43c30,000$12,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,899.9520454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…1809backed Spurs74c30,000$22,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.964459.1%26 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs69c29,634$20,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,091.8255251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x890e…db10backed Thunder43c27,238$11,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,712.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Spurs62c26,888$16,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,298.3672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0367…16d4backed Thunder2c26,326$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.374327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Spurs58c25,000$14,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5002245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs74c24,626$18,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,511.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a88…4c59backed Spurs58c24,564$14,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,316.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Thunder44c24,348$10,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,713.127048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Spurs57c21,930$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,429.8220946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder35c21,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,35058951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Thunder45c20,999$9,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,404.4886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder1c20,615$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.081,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Thunder45c20,500$9,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,189.9743438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Thunder1c20,200$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20235744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Spurs72c20,064$14,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,624.1630157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Thunder43c20,000$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,6003718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Spurs62c20,000$12,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,519.9717553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47f8…6699backed Spurs57c19,508$11,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,388.393354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x648d…1366backed Thunder44c19,508$8,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,583.473336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Thunder44c19,000$8,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,449.9865939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Spurs75c18,847$14,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,712.0924937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Thunder27c18,030$4,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,950.662144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8740…6facbacked Thunder25c17,304$4,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,285.651717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Spurs62c16,285$10,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,139.920155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Spurs58c16,150$9,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,782.883158.1%18 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Spurs58c16,107$9,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,821.91,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde19…3c92backed Thunder31c16,061$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,899.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe193…cc85backed Thunder41c16,059$6,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,636.436457.8%37 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Thunder43c16,023$6,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,889.898036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd82…9f66backed Thunder25c16,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,959.984148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Spurs58c15,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30011447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Spurs57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,45021446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,899.921,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92fe…99bdbacked Thunder44c14,400$6,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,335.782441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90eb…db79backed Thunder29c14,331$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1006060%36 W · 24 L+9.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Spurs75c14,284$10,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,617.279851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Spurs57c14,000$7,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,02012251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7093…0632backed Thunder43c13,777$5,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,924.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Thunder34c13,664$4,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,66117441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Thunder43c13,636$5,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,863.6138143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b3…e62ebacked Thunder0c13,563$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc6…5d88backed Spurs74c13,390$9,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.5771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Thunder44c12,910$5,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,687.5323742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c3…dbc7backed Thunder24c12,890$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1003043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Spurs58c12,400$7,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20815850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Thunder27c12,054$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,254.732846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ca…25d3backed Spurs53c12,005$6,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,642.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Spurs57c12,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,16024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Spurs58c11,905$6,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.13467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13b7…c98fbacked Thunder25c11,380$2,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.644047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.