TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,331 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880b…c98bbacked Yes50c4,017$2,009 inLost-$2,009.372937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked No50c4,000$2,000 inWon+$2,00013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes52c285.95$147 inLost-$147.4915650.6%79 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Yes49c204.5$100 inLost-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No52c194.99$101 inWon+$93.678652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No49c175.55$86 inWon+$89.5385449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked No54c146.86$80 inWon+$66.8625850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No48c117.29$57 inWon+$60.5533049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No48c62.5$30 inWon+$32.514953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes43c62.42$27 inLost-$26.8576054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No51c60$31 inWon+$29.443752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a67…52edbacked Yes48c52.08$25 inLost-$2512149.6%60 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No57c51.29$29 inWon+$22.1319555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes51c50$26 inLost-$25.541227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes51c50$26 inLost-$25.72347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Yes50c49.48$25 inLost-$24.5515562.6%97 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8a…5481backed Yes47c42.54$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No50c39.69$20 inWon+$19.6966046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf859…c775backed Yes50c39.21$20 inLost-$19.82445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked No44c33.64$15 inWon+$18.99941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea47…d64bbacked Yes48c27.52$13 inLost-$13.214052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9785…2c5abacked No50c22$11 inWon+$114949%24 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf959…0cd5backed Yes51c20.56$10 inLost-$10.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x230b…c2c4backed No57c20.49$12 inWon+$8.81650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed No50c20$10 inWon+$1011555.7%64 W · 51 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.