TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfea3…d227backed Under42c38,389$16,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,265.6315644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over58c24,918$14,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,354.1764948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under42c16,343$6,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,478.2655251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over57c13,737$7,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,865.536,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over58c10,130$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90024159.8%144 W · 97 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Over56c7,092$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00052461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9002860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Under43c3,300$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88143438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Under43c3,300$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88123742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Under43c3,200$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,82486641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Under43c3,100$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.9965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2942…59abbacked Over39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17018044.4%80 W · 100 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Under43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.910049%49 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Over57c2,631$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under42c2,609$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.181,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3f6abacked Under61c2,525$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.8611946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c2,300$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Under43c2,222$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.5421446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under44c1,868$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.462,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda39…c640backed Under42c1,744$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.691546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Over58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033749.3%166 W · 171 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under44c1,656$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.151,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Under42c1,374$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.866445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked Over57c1,301$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.5213759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Over58c1,294$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75021957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under42c1,238$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.752,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…1cc3backed Over39c1,148$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Over57c1,056$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.8315759.2%93 W · 64 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5839…2c33backed Over58c1,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3c…9320backed Over58c1,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60025360.1%152 W · 101 L+26.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under41c973$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.071,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac15…dd90backed Under52c958.66$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.662254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Under43c899.99$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.9968944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Over57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008654.7%47 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Over57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018853.2%100 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under43c822.12$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.6162051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5381…f932backed Over12c815.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.832030%6 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Under41c804.38$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.585657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Under38c803.58$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.2220153.7%108 W · 93 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Over56c720$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.26547.7%31 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over57c701.75$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under42c635.75$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.6460049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Under44c591$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.617247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Under58c581.45$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.2120155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over20c500.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031249.4%154 W · 158 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Over57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22816251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under43c392.82$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3666352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Over58c347.34$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.466659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c3…dbc7backed Over58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e4…ff59backed Over58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004546.7%21 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under58c343$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under46c298.09$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f08…57bcbacked Over54c277.35$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8561…936ebacked Over58c275.86$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under60c271$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.782,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7817…8812backed Over50c266.93$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.741872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdd9…be42backed Over19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Under41c206.49$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8314148.2%68 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under43c204.72$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.721,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67be…d937backed Over48c202.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Over58c189.66$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11015846.8%74 W · 84 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Over6c179.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5431222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd68b…c39cbacked Over57c178.16$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.551050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…5439backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64be…7edfbacked Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+49.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb19…60e6backed Over58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28dd…f376backed Over58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a1…97e6backed Over48c168.43$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.681963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked Over12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe355…a1f9backed Over56c163.38$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.491643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Over58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873167.7%21 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee2d…ba67backed Over58c146.41$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.923865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under51c124.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1889850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9610…1ab3backed Over58c122.07$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.81963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Under53c117.06$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5221046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under44c116.84$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.438354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under50c111.18$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5961151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under42c110.85$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.831,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ec…9a7dbacked Over58c108.72$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee6…cbfebacked Over49c101$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5861253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7d…b015backed Over47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474327.9%12 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under57c98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.325045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc059…a1edbacked Over59c97.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4612254.9%67 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Under61c96.6$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6916653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under51c93.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.631,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Under44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9117848.3%86 W · 92 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under42c89.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6610747.7%51 W · 56 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f5…2b4fbacked Over57c86.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.33158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08be…bea8backed Over58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010861.1%66 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e08…8e72backed Over58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb70…52c0backed Over58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over51c85.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7862144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101c…543dbacked Over57c85.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.692263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed Over59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020441.7%85 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8a…03bdbacked Over59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4c…39e5backed Under48c81.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea47…d64bbacked Over55c79.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.464052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…ae72backed Over58c75.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4414951.7%77 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under42c74.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1319959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.