NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ba5821d09781e3db1d491473e11a860d5c0f83cca5fbdff94de577588a6e868
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Spurs | 72c | 17,231$12,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,824.66 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Thunder | 28c | 12,925$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,629.51 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…68f3backed Spurs | 75c | 10,045$7,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.97 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…59abbacked Thunder | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 13c | 3,894$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thunder | 25c | 2,735$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.08 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…16eabacked Thunder | 28c | 2,072$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Thunder | 26c | 1,512$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Thunder | 26c | 1,395$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.21 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Thunder | 26c | 1,061$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.45 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Spurs | 72c | 904.24$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Spurs | 72c | 799.99$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Thunder | 28c | 709.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thunder | 26c | 643.72$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…e8d1backed Thunder | 29c | 608.04$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Thunder | 29c | 601.94$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.56 | 153 | 36.6%56 W · 97 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1b…b9c4backed Thunder | 30c | 513.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Thunder | 2c | 479.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Spurs | 72c | 440$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb4…d892backed Thunder | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Spurs | 73c | 376.71$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Thunder | 26c | 275.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Thunder | 15c | 248.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Spurs | 71c | 220.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Spurs | 72c | 200.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spurs | 74c | 173.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Spurs | 73c | 161.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Thunder | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Thunder | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Thunder | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…2cacbacked Thunder | 28c | 106.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Thunder | 26c | 100.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +11.0wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Thunder | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Spurs | 72c | 90.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Thunder | 13c | 88.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 259 | 44%114 W · 145 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…ff15backed Thunder | 28c | 81.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…94b2backed Thunder | 28c | 78.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked Thunder | 14c | 71.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Spurs | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spurs | 74c | 64.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…07e5backed Thunder | 20c | 63.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Thunder | 28c | 62.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…cf50backed Spurs | 73c | 60.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Thunder | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Spurs | 72c | 56.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Thunder | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Spurs | 73c | 54.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Thunder | 25c | 54.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…e652backed Thunder | 29c | 53.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Spurs | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…e0edbacked Spurs | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…6025backed Thunder | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Thunder | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Thunder | 28c | 39.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Spurs | 73c | 33.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…8eb3backed Spurs | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Spurs | 72c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Spurs | 73c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…0f85backed Spurs | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Spurs | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Spurs | 72c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.