NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5381a93c989d3c872e37cdaf5e2cfe12d23f9989cbbeea0528b3baddc1d004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 38c | 6,367$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.57 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 63c | 4,075$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 39c | 3,831$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 38c | 2,608$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Under | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…8904backed Under | 65c | 1,846$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…e14cbacked Under | 65c | 1,806$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.09 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 62c | 1,726$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.08 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 41c | 1,725$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 62c | 1,618$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.7 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Under | 62c | 1,383$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.82 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…9a68backed Under | 63c | 1,230$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…780cbacked Under | 76c | 1,053$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.9 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 869$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 60c | 798.9$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.56 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 61c | 783.15$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.91 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…e238backed Over | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Over | 38c | 540$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Over | 35c | 467.53$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 40c | 425.03$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.01 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 36c | 292.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…b842backed Under | 63c | 277.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 37c | 203.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…0dcfbacked Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…e891backed Over | 33c | 130.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 36c | 109.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…8199backed Over | 37c | 79.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…1e15backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 62c | 70.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a6…72aabacked Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 39c | 60.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Over | 37c | 56.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085f…c468backed Over | 38c | 47.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…be50backed Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd148…6b52backed Over | 37c | 27.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 61c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 61c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…fb69backed Under | 65c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.