NBA · resolved market
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81932c86ca62d6cf343e294608748eb0b4495ce86bb71eac60100a476bcdb99c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…b1e7backed Yes | 34c | 1,500$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Yes | 10c | 1,141$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Yes | 10c | 1,141$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yes | 10c | 1,141$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,016$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Yes | 10c | 835$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 66c | 768.31$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.72 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 66c | 746.29$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.29 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Yes | 8c | 733$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Yes | 8c | 733$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 2c | 637.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Yes | 8c | 508$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 79c | 502.37$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 99 | 75.8%75 W · 24 L | +16.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…b5d2backed Yes | 35c | 443.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 65c | 350.72$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 33c | 250.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 20c | 244$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 33c | 240$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…eb42backed Yes | 33c | 238.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…1ea3backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 66c | 109.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed Yes | 38c | 79.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 68c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed No | 67c | 25.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed No | 66c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…3355backed No | 64c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.