TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,225
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,225 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1543…baafbacked Over48c2,060$989 inLost-$988.6112741.7%53 W · 74 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Under52c1,200$624 inWon+$57620155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under49c980.69$482 inWon+$498.222,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Under52c809.74$419 inWon+$390.717247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Over2c660.19$11 inLost-$11.231222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf72…af1abacked Over52c378.5$196 inLost-$195.742050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under47c315.25$148 inWon+$167.0879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f53…acb1backed Under52c220.56$114 inWon+$106.181650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Over49c204.08$100 inLost-$1005550.9%28 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+36.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb688…6862backed Over50c198.03$100 inLost-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under50c192.31$96 inWon+$96.162,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over53c183.17$97 inLost-$97.0884443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under51c128.09$65 inWon+$62.71,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over11c113.42$12 inLost-$12.2276653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a88…3dadbacked Under52c105$55 inWon+$50.42454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…2ad5backed Over48c102.08$49 inLost-$49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over53c94.34$50 inLost-$5046346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under50c52.8$26 inWon+$26.455444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea47…d64bbacked Under51c25.9$13 inWon+$12.694052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under41c25.42$10 inWon+$1525045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over59c25.42$15 inLost-$156246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Under50c20$10 inWon+$1037848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under52c19.88$10 inWon+$9.5437665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.