NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4f81250017b2020c4297f34a2b2a81adf7140af911d43dd1e0b102723c63920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked Yes | 50c | 10,515$5,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,254.27 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 41c | 1,883$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.8 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 62c | 864.8$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.57 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…3d6fbacked No | 54c | 727.78$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 51c | 443.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c9…cf56backed No | 52c | 379.94$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…13abbacked No | 53c | 258$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…07a3backed No | 63c | 237.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked No | 54c | 223.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 55c | 207.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked No | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 51c | 193.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 53c | 183.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 46c | 179.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Yes | 58c | 172.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 169.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 51c | 126.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 51c | 106.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 52c | 96.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…d269backed Yes | 49c | 83.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 68.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Yes | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked No | 37c | 56.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Yes | 46c | 54.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Yes | 50c | 40.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…0fb1backed Yes | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 52c | 38.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…724abacked Yes | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf959…0cd5backed No | 53c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…545fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.