TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,271
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,271 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No55c1,100$610 inLost-$61079650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Yes44c900.61$397 inWon+$503.132937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9078…f1d7backed Yes43c692.45$300 inWon+$392.451258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No57c250.79$143 inLost-$143.0233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No59c150$89 inLost-$8985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No56c140$78 inLost-$78.243752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8386backed Yes40c75$30 inWon+$452161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd755…61a1backed Yes37c72.4$27 inWon+$45.614037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked No30c56.98$17 inLost-$17.023033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes42c50$21 inWon+$2941227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed Yes37c40.54$15 inWon+$25.5414953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No55c35$19 inLost-$19.252,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes45c35$16 inWon+$19.252347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a67…52edbacked Yes39c30.5$12 inWon+$18.512149.6%60 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No62c29.91$19 inLost-$18.6919555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeece…8a27backed Yes58c28.26$16 inWon+$11.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes68c25.99$18 inWon+$8.326150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5049…f6cfbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon+$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed No61c20.5$13 inLost-$12.5115650.6%79 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No62c18.32$11 inLost-$11.3533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.