TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,325 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4490…fe8bbacked Yes50c413.01$205 inLost-$2053450%17 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No50c248.13$124 inWon+$124.4533049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes46c225.77$104 inLost-$103.8584342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes51c206.08$105 inLost-$105.215650.6%79 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No52c144.22$75 inWon+$69.221,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No49c130$64 inWon+$65.743752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No49c109.79$54 inWon+$55.9985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No50c108.96$54 inWon+$54.7853842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes50c94.1$47 inLost-$46.8510636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked No52c60$31 inWon+$28.816951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7913…f3e2backed Yes49c40.8$20 inLost-$201050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9785…2c5abacked Yes48c40$19 inLost-$19.24949%24 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No53c37.41$20 inWon+$17.4166046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed Yes50c30$15 inLost-$155736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x590a…c459backed Yes50c29.7$15 inLost-$14.852564%16 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+58.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x802e…76fdbacked No75c26.31$20 inWon+$6.475887.9%51 W · 7 L+13.6wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf56e…a853backed No75c26.31$20 inWon+$6.584393%40 W · 3 L+12.5wins+0.29per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes50c25$13 inLost-$12.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No51c20$10 inWon+$9.933356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No53c18.92$10 inWon+$8.8330842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.