NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe31d1cafc93b3f7215a7cf3e48124a8f2023ef42a3bc6c3bc57a6d0e647aeb89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 32c | 5,334$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.25 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 35c | 3,682$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…2839backed Under | 70c | 2,815$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Under | 68c | 2,497$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 67c | 2,022$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 68c | 1,874$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.22 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 35c | 1,424$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Under | 68c | 1,115$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.83 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…6bb7backed Over | 30c | 1,059$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa0…c519backed Over | 30c | 1,030$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…d156backed Over | 30c | 1,006$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…2c40backed Under | 58c | 863.06$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.48 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…06bbbacked Under | 71c | 706.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.51 | 137 | 57.7%79 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 78c | 449.44$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…a86fbacked Over | 25c | 400.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Under | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 7c | 299.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 63c | 292.85$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…cb58backed Under | 70c | 290$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…e238backed Over | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…d702backed Over | 24c | 158.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…6f6bbacked Over | 33c | 155$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 30c | 131.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Under | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 123$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Under | 77c | 100.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…5517backed Over | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…e891backed Over | 31c | 99.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 33c | 95.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 33c | 94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Over | 18c | 93.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Under | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa0…6ca0backed Under | 78c | 84.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…d0b0backed Over | 32c | 81.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…8ec6backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 32c | 52.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa543…9a38backed Under | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…1e15backed Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…ba87backed Under | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…a5b7backed Under | 68c | 35.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…5863backed Over | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 67c | 33.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Under | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Under | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 68c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 69c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.