TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x761b…e8f7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
165
Categories scored
31
Categories below 50
19

Best Category: NHL, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 63 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT3360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Scorebacked Even · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$4.99
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$8.54
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$6.44
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$5.59
Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Scorebacked Odd · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$8.3
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$6.15
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$6.9
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$7.24
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.41
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 104.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$8.3
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+114.3%+$16
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.42
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+73.9%+$8.5
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT+61.4%+$10.82
Bucks vs. Pacersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$5.71
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.46
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT1681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+60.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
NHL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Championships: Norway vs. Latviabacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$8.3
Utah vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+76.7%+$8.72
Rangers vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+82.7%+$15.3
Wild vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$19.07
Utah vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$24.14
Panthers vs. Flyersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.13
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+68.1%+$7.2
Golden Knights vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.16
Golden Knights vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$15.68
Panthers vs. Lightningbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$9.7
Wild vs. Golden Knightsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+154.2%+$54.6
Kraken vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+62.1%+$7.98
Canadiens vs. Predatorsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+100%+$13.22
Blue Jackets vs. Senatorsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.4
Stars vs. Oilersbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
Golden Knights vs. Wildbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2025, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+66.7%+$9.6
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+40.8%+$7.25
Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$19.3
Will 'Conclave' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will 'The Brutalist' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$16.75
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+127.5%+$28.02
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$17.25
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$17
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+334.8%+$38.5
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$26.9
Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$19.25
Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$19.75
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+47.1%+$8
All 14 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jalen Milroe be drafted in the First Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.44
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$24.75
Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$8.25
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$33.75
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+301.1%+$105.1
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$37.1
Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.5
Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13.68
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+42.3%+$29.75
Will the New York Giants finish with the worst record in the NFL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$37.75
Will the Las Vegas Raiders finish with the worst record in the NFL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$14.85
Will the New England Patriots finish with the worst record in the NFL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$11.25
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-69.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will the announcers say "Pressure" 15+ times during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$9.7
Will the announcers say "Corner" 22+ times during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+77%+$8.1
Will Armenia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Croatia win on 2025-09-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Faroe Islands vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Norway win on 2025-09-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-09-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Singapore win on 2025-09-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Malaysia win on 2025-09-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.33
All 12 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2025, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on June 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$9.7
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on June 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$9.7
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.79
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+57.9%+$6.83
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 69-70°F on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+50%+$5
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$9.69
Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+77%+$8.7
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+100%+$12.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)backed Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+96.4%+$10.41
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. NC Dinosbacked NC Dinos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+73.7%+$8.06
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Tigers vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.29
Guardians vs. Red Soxbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.5
Cubs vs. Cardinalsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+77%+$8.7
Rays vs. Marlinsbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.1
Cubs vs. Piratesbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+62.6%+$7.7
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT+77.5%+$13.1
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Marino: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Andrea Pellegrinobacked Andrea Pellegrino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Bloomfield Hills: Colton Smith vs J.J. Wolfbacked Colton Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Generali Open (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Molteni/Trhacbacked Gille/Verbeek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
Little Rock: Aidan Mayo vs Edas Butvilasbacked Edas Butvilas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Muhammad/Stollar vs Alexandrova/Danilinabacked Alexandrova/Danilina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+181.3%+$27.07
Jiangxi Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Polina Kudermetovabacked Kudermetova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.39
Jiangxi Open: Sijia Wei vs Anna Bondarbacked Wei · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
Korea Open: Jaqueline Cristian vs Emma Raducanubacked Raducanu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
US Open: Francesco Passaro vs. Henrique Rochabacked Passaro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+91.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-13.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs EXSAD Gaming (BO3) - LPLOL Group Stagebacked ZeroZone Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$6.9
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$8.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Barcelona vs. Valenciabacked Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharksbacked Shanghai Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+133.1%+$14.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Syntax vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bbacked Team Syntax · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+112.2%+$11.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Delhi Capitals vs. Rajasthan Royalsbacked Delhi Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+90.5%+$9.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST+58.7%+$9.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+44.9%+$15.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ceará SC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+36.1%+$5.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-07-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$3.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northern Kentucky vs. Green Baybacked Green Bay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$11.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Techbacked Virginia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked FULL SENSE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wix.com (WIX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg?backed Bortoleto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Real Racing Club O/U 5.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 24 or more Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$17.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.