TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,331,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,560,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,331,122 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,094 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa53…0149backed Yes38c265,224$102,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163,141.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No60c165,677$100,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,141.547041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd5…b4bbbacked No45c124,946$56,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,071.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd192…ccb5backed Yes37c105,298$39,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,258.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+73.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4b8…5e11backed Yes52c82,401$43,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,196.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed Yes54c73,366$39,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,658.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b0e…78ddbacked No61c70,500$42,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,914.983943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1886…2bebbacked Yes54c66,119$35,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,563.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed No45c46,791$20,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,894.334134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No44c46,478$20,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,510.5219645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb5f4…710abacked Yes52c45,215$23,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,574.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes52c45,139$23,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,548.8714248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d2…822abacked Yes62c40,299$25,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,287.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Yes50c39,786$20,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,703.1260049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Yes53c39,381$20,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,496.762850%14 W · 14 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+98.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4961…fa7dbacked Yes54c38,958$21,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,776.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67c8…a7f5backed Yes57c37,746$21,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,309.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x572f…7c08backed Yes53c37,475$19,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,631.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba8…8cf7backed Yes53c37,117$19,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,363.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe489…8429backed Yes58c36,855$21,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,590.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac0…1a25backed Yes58c36,454$21,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,337.92475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Yes79c35,810$28,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,663.6410639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a4…83cebacked Yes61c33,354$20,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,054366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Yes61c31,803$19,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,439.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb767…36b3backed Yes53c27,135$14,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,634.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8a…5b5ebacked Yes40c26,953$10,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,136.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+118.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf14f…39a0backed No46c26,872$12,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,454.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa31c…3569backed Yes54c24,574$13,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,289.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x455e…d2cfbacked Yes55c21,840$11,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,904.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2839…538cbacked Yes55c21,222$11,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,533.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d5…865fbacked Yes56c21,177$11,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,316.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes35c20,862$7,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,611.0622434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4671…56b0backed Yes53c20,503$10,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,570.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No26c18,940$4,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,872.172035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6be…e346backed Yes70c17,501$12,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,245.881513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No76c17,255$13,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,068.382871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bee…4414backed Yes18c16,961$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,926.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+168.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes44c16,324$7,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,101.794546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes55c15,573$8,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,952.7912934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf6…1681backed Yes79c14,157$11,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes43c14,028$6,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,945.6720440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No49c13,744$6,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,759.622441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7183…c6c1backed Yes57c13,719$7,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,960.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed78…968abacked Yes50c13,673$6,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,809.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes54c13,029$7,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,015.321809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed No57c12,800$7,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,264.273652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes55c12,274$6,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,484.664139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…442abacked No42c12,053$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,060.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f6…770fbacked Yes53c12,008$6,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,702.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes36c12,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,679.991520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes72c11,861$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,361.319045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9373…f905backed Yes72c11,856$8,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes36c11,800$4,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,573.056950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Yes72c11,607$8,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.153548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No5c11,060$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.2416832.1%54 W · 114 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No45c10,946$4,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,905.731136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No51c10,928$5,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,540.4177052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes53c10,395$5,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,907.9517648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6121…6f3ebacked Yes55c9,951$5,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,506.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked Yes59c9,860$5,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,025.692065%13 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7483…42debacked Yes50c9,836$4,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,905.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No35c9,547$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.087123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes72c9,149$6,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.831060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6761…b785backed Yes55c9,060$5,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,034.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaba…8e59backed No19c8,807$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc10b…c053backed Yes51c8,707$4,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,297.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes23c8,314$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,408.5618645.7%85 W · 101 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No31c8,282$2,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,561.695472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes58c8,126$4,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,373.36832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No44c8,077$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.629645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Yes68c8,004$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.473844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked No14c7,933$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.065014%7 W · 43 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes57c7,798$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,378.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes72c7,295$5,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.155356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03eb…9dacbacked Yes55c7,207$3,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.54475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes12c7,083$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,244.066841.2%28 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked No59c6,752$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8198…5eecbacked Yes53c6,620$3,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…57edbacked Yes57c6,512$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,802.241266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes57c6,402$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,743.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1834…a26abacked Yes79c6,279$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes70c6,235$4,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.298818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes22c6,143$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,817.164621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No29c6,100$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.443030%9 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+81.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes9c5,984$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.127241.7%30 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No36c5,977$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.635750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes18c5,791$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,722.9914139%55 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No20c5,694$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.819436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x660f…c69bbacked Yes55c5,454$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,453.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e3…5ac2backed Yes57c5,290$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Yes25c5,106$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,850.473650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc449…f3d5backed No44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x524a…c233backed Yes65c4,878$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes75c4,823$3,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe54…41d6backed No31c4,640$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8af…1c8cbacked Yes55c4,625$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3195…a94fbacked Yes28c4,504$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.843455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1290…5269backed Yes34c4,312$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes44c4,192$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.6924738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes18c4,110$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,365.720246%93 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.