TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,777,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,417,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,777,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c353,158$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.21014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c146,637$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.171769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf146…9bf4backed Yes0c60,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd307…0b63backed Yes0c50,526$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…a550backed Yes0c50,463$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c49,800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.072430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c4…8b81backed Yes0c46,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f36…5adabacked Yes0c41,403$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.81812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-82.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb311…68c6backed Yes0c37,926$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c27,100$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596f…06e1backed Yes0c26,336$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d5…5b51backed Yes0c25,435$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb864…d537backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x917b…536cbacked Yes0c22,739$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf0…ab9cbacked Yes0c21,493$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e57…5216backed Yes0c15,576$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2553…3122backed Yes0c15,306$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1026…0b54backed Yes0c14,774$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes0c13,332$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.339732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a93…e923backed Yes0c12,395$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe828…30a9backed Yes0c12,274$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd157…09efbacked Yes0c12,153$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456c…5c5fbacked Yes0c11,667$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x620d…9ce4backed Yes0c11,142$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6063…03f6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes10c9,708$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.6722434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa111…e105backed Yes0c9,343$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3b…bafabacked Yes0c8,779$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9f…2666backed Yes0c7,845$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes4c7,679$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.5225643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a9…7aeebacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c7,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e6…cd8ebacked Yes0c6,650$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd087…a93bbacked Yes0c6,384$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…10f9backed Yes0c6,224$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500c…327dbacked Yes0c6,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7a…5485backed Yes0c5,985$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes15c5,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82510246.1%47 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes17c5,365$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.6818645.7%85 W · 101 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf024…51c3backed Yes0c5,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92a…8c67backed Yes0c5,275$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab2…1c3cbacked Yes0c5,048$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes10c5,014$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.8620246%93 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014139%55 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes0c4,802$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.03454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1275…1517backed Yes0c4,765$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes13c4,536$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.271809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Yes9c3,323$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.15846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd314…2859backed Yes13c2,858$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.131414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fac…f9a4backed Yes17c2,133$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.68450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+83.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes20c1,877$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.4116439.6%65 W · 99 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,678$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9252828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes1c1,560$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0880%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…aee3backed Yes15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf84…dd37backed Yes15c1,267$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed Yes11c1,100$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes12c1,073$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0614248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes11c794.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc72d…320fbacked Yes3c716.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes18c698.89$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.82313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Yes18c550.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013641.9%57 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4090…18adbacked Yes20c550$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+135.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.915332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50323.1%1 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4e…c452backed Yes22c454.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…eb0abacked Yes14c450$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes6c362.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.531241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc74…eb1dbacked Yes17c358.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcff…a5d5backed Yes10c325.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111933.6%40 W · 79 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…8934backed Yes16c310.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes21c310.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.661225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbb…a8fbbacked No78c299.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes14c285.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes10c273.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.341520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes8c237.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018658.1%108 W · 78 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010125.7%26 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2627835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e3…130fbacked Yes17c165.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-76.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x227f…5922backed Yes13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6307…2b67backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcb…a83bbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd74e…bc44backed Yes22c96.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014537.2%54 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7701…24e6backed No76c83.33$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2016845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703c…e334backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaeb…c969backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1160%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed No70c33.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.