TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,410,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,392,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,410,212 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c157,069$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.071014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c140,368$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.551769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c76…e053backed Yes0c107,137$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebe…f133backed Yes0c80,353$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c55,883$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.762430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…b185backed Yes0c53,569$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c7…2b39backed Yes0c53,153$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe09f…bf0cbacked Yes0c53,153$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa232…30cdbacked Yes0c39,330$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed Yes0c37,643$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.641010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf74…0fcabacked Yes0c36,428$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.86170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ef…284bbacked Yes0c27,700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa426…f693backed Yes0c27,700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa015…7e14backed Yes0c27,700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb4…d2a6backed Yes0c26,784$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736c…a6dcbacked Yes0c26,784$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1fb…f8f2backed Yes0c26,784$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf710…8389backed Yes0c26,784$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b5…94aabacked Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468f…6b06backed Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0e…6c8fbacked Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83cf…da08backed Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5683…fec3backed Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38d…d07bbacked Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1238…72fcbacked Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba46…8586backed Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7b…7eedbacked Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d84…533abacked Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d2b…a029backed Yes0c26,577$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78fe…2183backed Yes0c26,418$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x874c…f55fbacked Yes0c26,366$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd60e…44dabacked Yes0c24,929$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2727…a22bbacked Yes0c24,929$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe912…157fbacked Yes0c24,872$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9128…0439backed Yes0c21,785$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes0c21,563$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab90…e314backed Yes0c20,558$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1280%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83a…319dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c19,441$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.881061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28b…2e2dbacked Yes0c19,400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb659…8e36backed Yes0c16,430$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c57…c39dbacked Yes0c15,600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54aa…38ccbacked Yes0c15,480$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7d…9210backed Yes0c14,723$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20cd…ef74backed Yes0c13,900$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1a…0584backed Yes0c13,745$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb97…4d67backed Yes0c13,740$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…2d0bbacked Yes0c13,740$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc91d…b27dbacked Yes0c13,558$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c3…b42dbacked Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x708b…8c24backed Yes0c12,765$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2791…02d8backed Yes0c12,130$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2471…29bdbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…a871backed Yes0c11,867$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…e31ebacked Yes0c11,858$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9be…04a4backed Yes0c10,979$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0456…5149backed Yes0c10,931$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215e…fafebacked Yes0c10,736$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6882…c6b4backed Yes0c10,190$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cda…4573backed Yes0c10,184$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6063…03f6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c9,843$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.53442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ce…ce16backed Yes0c8,228$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc0…8934backed Yes0c7,720$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes0c6,881$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9022…d158backed Yes0c6,638$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0496…ad96backed Yes0c6,637$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e90…5e9fbacked Yes0c6,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e87…44b2backed Yes0c6,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2b…4337backed Yes0c6,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd4…8c29backed Yes0c6,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d6…86a1backed Yes0c6,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf011…d6d2backed Yes0c6,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c6,472$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c66…bef0backed Yes0c6,122$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba0…25efbacked Yes0c5,562$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ce…c8b8backed Yes0c4,957$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x861b…8030backed Yes0c4,957$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e72…2487backed Yes0c4,957$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8732…865fbacked Yes0c4,957$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b6…377cbacked Yes0c4,143$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe477…bb6cbacked Yes2c3,775$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5281…cd90backed Yes0c3,681$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe9…bb4fbacked Yes0c3,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ec…779dbacked Yes0c2,841$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes0c2,676$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c5…25cfbacked Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.