TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,565,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$750,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,565,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 303 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c192,663$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.71014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d87…a8f3backed Yes0c186,054$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c181,268$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.541769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bdb…cec5backed Yes0c129,884$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa133…f5fbbacked Yes0c107,064$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1acb…c30ebacked Yes0c104,268$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…57dcbacked Yes0c100,476$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x049d…6b27backed Yes0c100,476$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c74,998$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c67,707$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.252430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf014…3063backed Yes0c62,156$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fca…dafebacked Yes0c60,751$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ee…efb8backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08b…6eb1backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffe…a6aabacked Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…2154backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b09…6255backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffd…7471backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a7…83d2backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc2…4b3dbacked Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f7…04d0backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c2…0b91backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8453…6b50backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2989…d070backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa90…46a1backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b4…7c8dbacked Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad1…4564backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb5…65f2backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x940e…6118backed Yes0c54,868$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf74…0fcabacked Yes0c53,222$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.44170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1517…2a31backed Yes0c52,073$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a9…d70bbacked Yes0c49,503$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe57c…1eabbacked Yes0c48,010$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe492…14d5backed Yes0c48,010$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf508…e312backed Yes0c48,010$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1a…6c83backed Yes0c48,010$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…734fbacked Yes0c48,010$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…f6ebbacked Yes0c48,010$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1d…3514backed Yes0c48,009$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1dc…18a4backed Yes0c47,380$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ce…c4debacked Yes0c47,380$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf308…7778backed Yes0c47,380$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa12e…f419backed Yes0c47,380$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3a…917abacked Yes0c47,355$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfef0…d067backed Yes0c47,330$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde10…1625backed Yes0c47,330$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3b…4be1backed Yes0c47,330$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1350…5c12backed Yes0c47,306$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb64d…676fbacked Yes0c47,306$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf227…244ebacked Yes0c47,306$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6f…2fc0backed Yes0c47,304$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030b…d717backed Yes0c47,304$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72bb…1c96backed Yes0c47,280$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ee…9d8bbacked Yes0c47,280$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b8…0649backed Yes0c47,280$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a9…0c66backed Yes0c47,280$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2df…0e89backed Yes0c47,280$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191c…4eccbacked Yes0c45,901$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…eafabacked Yes0c41,399$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9836…596abacked Yes0c41,399$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6200…ec05backed Yes0c41,399$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c1…4334backed Yes0c41,373$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc313…a900backed Yes0c41,373$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x446a…f962backed Yes0c41,373$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe204…fdcbbacked Yes0c41,349$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab71…5b2ebacked Yes0c37,258$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…6c23backed Yes0c37,024$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…dfa0backed Yes0c37,024$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7b…53f2backed Yes0c36,956$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a45…d815backed Yes0c36,956$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f9…ba77backed Yes0c36,852$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbafc…705bbacked Yes0c34,510$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e6…7801backed Yes0c33,936$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221b…2f27backed Yes0c32,422$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadad…67cfbacked Yes0c31,957$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa4…cc48backed Yes0c31,939$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc36…237abacked Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe218…24e0backed Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aa8…5d95backed Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac2…7634backed Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1492…fd97backed Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x318f…48f5backed Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…5f9bbacked Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a9…bd9ebacked Yes0c31,888$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc00f…3a2abacked Yes0c31,731$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb0…40e2backed Yes0c31,680$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6778…d749backed Yes0c31,575$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d1…3c84backed Yes0c31,575$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c1…51afbacked Yes0c31,525$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d71…d5cdbacked Yes0c31,456$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e42…0a06backed Yes0c30,977$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9945…fa3bbacked Yes0c30,211$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f09…b474backed Yes0c29,994$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ce…3811backed Yes0c28,921$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.93120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1853…6a0bbacked Yes0c28,885$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.88110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17b…dcffbacked Yes0c28,797$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1716…ab6ebacked Yes0c28,797$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa31b…6c45backed Yes0c28,716$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadd…0177backed Yes0c28,395$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.39110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…4992backed Yes0c28,395$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.