TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,618,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$988,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,618,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5532…c73fbacked Yes0c971,033$2,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,913.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8251…52d3backed Yes0c969,340$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cb…505abacked Yes0c969,340$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24d…237abacked Yes0c967,776$2,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e2…1224backed Yes0c942,473$2,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919c…8599backed Yes0c939,312$2,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,817.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964e…482dbacked Yes0c911,040$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d4…3371backed Yes0c911,040$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6943…055ebacked Yes0c882,880$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617a…e4bdbacked Yes0c880,679$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d61…2101backed Yes0c880,679$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d4…32ccbacked Yes0c854,400$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x415f…6d6bbacked Yes0c827,544$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf65e…f532backed Yes0c827,544$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d8…9894backed Yes0c798,164$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c6…4ac2backed Yes0c769,658$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c282,841$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.841014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ef…6297backed Yes0c246,464$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f6…2597backed Yes0c162,631$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c123,581$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.581769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc241…ffe9backed Yes0c120,547$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6d…777bbacked Yes0c110,485$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0990…c1a0backed Yes0c108,535$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb8…48f1backed Yes0c105,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…55febacked Yes0c105,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa9c…ef69backed Yes0c99,118$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…9802backed Yes0c93,774$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes0c93,396$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.441540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564d…57c7backed Yes0c80,800$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71b…0110backed Yes0c69,527$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d44…4c09backed Yes0c63,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafc4…26ffbacked Yes0c63,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a6…5965backed Yes0c61,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc3…df1dbacked Yes0c61,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9aa…ebf4backed Yes0c60,600$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c59,490$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.942430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1853…6a0bbacked Yes0c58,273$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.27110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4152…5daebacked Yes0c55,098$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf0…b39cbacked Yes0c50,750$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…afffbacked Yes0c47,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ce…3811backed Yes0c45,435$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.44120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…4992backed Yes0c38,558$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.56110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f09…b474backed Yes0c38,553$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadd…0177backed Yes0c38,553$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17b…dcffbacked Yes0c38,553$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1716…ab6ebacked Yes0c38,553$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f16…35e0backed Yes0c38,553$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed Yes0c38,075$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.071010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…8fe3backed Yes0c31,300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab90…e314backed Yes0c30,014$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260a…dbf6backed Yes0c29,137$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.141216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-68.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0811…bd26backed Yes0c29,137$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.14100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f95…cd99backed Yes0c29,137$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf9…e7bebacked Yes0c29,137$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.14128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-89.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a00…ed53backed Yes0c29,137$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d9…b34fbacked Yes0c28,524$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.521010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-86.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854b…348abacked Yes0c27,986$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf74…0fcabacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1b…100abacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1333…2f4dbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8265…8b0cbacked Yes0c24,766$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.77100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b9…2739backed Yes0c24,453$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…93a3backed Yes0c16,448$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e95…b333backed Yes0c15,250$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea8…d6b3backed Yes0c14,619$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa23…8d7bbacked Yes0c14,567$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2041…977fbacked Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes0c13,260$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b3…bd99backed Yes0c13,260$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcebe…bf6bbacked Yes0c13,260$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3e…830cbacked Yes0c12,250$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b3…9738backed Yes0c11,707$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd955…cefdbacked Yes0c11,707$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bce…00afbacked Yes0c11,471$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f46…e7c7backed Yes0c11,270$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7e…85b7backed Yes0c11,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf0a…c09ebacked Yes0c11,059$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a60…378fbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61d…2adabacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc099…9613backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d5…890cbacked Yes0c10,998$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cd…a96ebacked Yes0c10,966$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ab4…136dbacked Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…14a1backed Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ab…18d4backed Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x893b…f844backed Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25fc…8338backed Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807a…bd24backed Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb7…575fbacked Yes0c10,767$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f25…121dbacked Yes0c10,740$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3549…8579backed Yes0c10,700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…bfaebacked Yes0c10,600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf3…00c4backed Yes0c10,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca3…25b8backed Yes0c10,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784b…cd01backed Yes0c10,486$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace7…8f4bbacked Yes0c10,450$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf850…ee47backed Yes0c10,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f04…6dd5backed Yes0c10,354$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac1…c64cbacked Yes0c10,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa359…7893backed Yes0c10,280$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.